I am sorry you feel that way.
We both agree that there is potential for this mine to throw off some major cash. Assuming management do not squander it on something. Then one does indeed understand that the market will eventually see the value and the share price will rise.
The difference between the two scenarios is that:
- You want a Share price of $4 with 270 million shares with a value of 1.08 Billion
- I want a Share price $4.88 with 221 million shares (as before) also with a value of 1.08 Billion.
The fact that one can argue to not buy a share at $1.63 or $2 or $2.5 or EVEN $3 when we largely have consensus this company is worth north of AUD 1 billion dollars and a share price north of $4 is quite odd.
Further to this a dividend will result in 40%-50% going to the ATO as mostly this is held by retail, and mostly not in super (yes, some people hold it in super, including me)
Another point, is that one can create your own dividend and reduce the ATO involvement by 50% by selling a proportional amount of your own shares as the company has bought and you retain the same ownership. If you do not sell, you increase your ownership in the company all the while saving $12.5m dollars from going to the ATO on a 20c dividend on 257 million shares. That is the saving as actually $20 million to $25m will actually go to the ATO.
Even further. The actual strategic direction is to sell part or all of AKARA. IPO or straight sale. Ask Jamie or Ross. They just met IPO people in Thailand and this is progressing in the background. (Might take a while, but is moving forward)
It's blatantly obvious that one needs to decrease the shares on issue. Kingsgate used to have under 100m shares and used to be very highly valued.
See the correlation?
Thai IPO of KCN valued at $1,200,000,000 so Sell 50% for $600,000,000
At 270,000,000 shares = $4.44 per share
At 220,000,000 shares = $5.40 per sharer.
Thus KCN owns 50% of AKARA valued at $600,000,000 / 220m = $2.7 per share plus $600,000,000 in cash also valued at $2.7 per share.
It would again be fairly silly to give a $2.7 dividend because as before half will go to the ATO. One hopes they might do a return of capital but quite simply they should offer to buy your shares from you which is also called a BUY-BACK. Tax falls from 50% to 25% and 15% to 10% in Super. Imagine that.
Remember when PSC gave a 90c dividend. Their shareholders lost their minds and rightly so. Some massive shareholders sold out at 70c and received more after tax cash than the people that got the 90c dividend.
End of story.
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Mkt cap ! $331.2M |
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1 | 2924 | 1.275 |
1 | 4114 | 1.270 |
1 | 4114 | 1.265 |
1 | 796 | 1.255 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.290 | 22864 | 2 |
1.295 | 4114 | 1 |
1.300 | 4555 | 2 |
1.305 | 586 | 1 |
1.310 | 294 | 1 |
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