RSK will not yet be privy to the size of the award, nor will the Thais, given both parties have agreed to stay the handing down of the award by mutual agreement. Furthermore - even assuming that $1bn AUD is awarded by the tribunal (a number that I think is quite aggressive - more likely AUD 750m IMO) - do you think the market will value @ 100c/$ or the Thai's will pay immediately? If market prices at a 50% haircut, which I think is quite likely until real progress is shown on either enforcement actions or a deal cut, the business would essentially be valued at the current share price (assuming a $750m award).
With that said - I still remain (probably irresponsibly) long in this company, with it making up a significant part of my portfolio. Principally because the upside is so much asymmetric, given the value of a re-opening + upside from additional SPL's etc.
Just trying to give some balance to your absolute worst case estimate of 3x the current EV of the company.
KCN Price at posting:
$1.46 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)