Gold is now at US$2,220.80/oz. Spectacular value.KCN last gave...

Gold is now at US$2,220.80/oz. Spectacular value.

KCN last gave guidance that Plant 1 would be in production end of March 2024. The next trading day is Tuesday 2 April 2024. KCN would be compelled to issue an announcement on 2 April that gives the status. I don't care what the status is, as long as it is accurately and clearly reported with enough information to evaluate when Plant 1 will be operational and higher grade ore is likely to come on line.

All we need is certainty. In time we can expect 120,000 oz/year of gold production. With an AISC of US$1,200/oz (is this correct?), this would amount to US$120m/yr. That is, AU$180m/yr. This for a company with a market capitalisation of $300m.

With 257,751,692 shares on issue, $180m/yr is $0.70/share/year in earnings. Assuming a P/E ratio of 8, this would mean a share price of $5.60/share.

To this there are potential upsides and downsides. On the downside there are equipment breakdowns, a significant drop in gold price and government instability. On the upside there are improved efficiency, improved ore grade, improved ore resources, improved gold production (it was 180,000 oz/yr in 2010 using the same plants) and a significant increase in gold price. Looks pretty balanced to me.

All we need now is higher grade or (>1 g/t) and both plants operating. Is there any reason that the KCN share price would not be circa $5.60/share once these happen?