The reality is, for WA lithium miners the best thing to happen with Goulamina is for the project to stall, thus taking 300-400kt out of the supply for 2025 and 500kt for 2026
There is already idle capacity with trains unused, or not fully optimised in WA.
ALB and PLS did the market no favours the last 2 weeks.
ALB a supposed $1200 US price achieved though the pricing and customer is rather opaque. Auction was in Yuan.
Worse still PLS taking a pre auction bid for for SC6 equivalent at $1200 USD. Thats CIF !!! Not FOB, and here is the worst part, for delivery in December quarter.
What does that tell you about PLS forecast price deck for the remainder of this year??
Sigma also put out pricing. I note LTR holders jumped on the $1333 USD FOB pricing. Net of VAT thats $1160 USD. Nothing flash if you are projected to be top quartile for OPEX.
Sigmas simple flow sheet (dry stack tailings) low labour costs and renewable hydro energy, has them still making a killing at that price.
Commissioning is an arduous process and rarely goes fully to plan. Strangely enough Altura was probably the best in recent times if you look at their results, trouble is the timing to come on line was terrible.
Goulamina will carry some debt, but in comparison to LTR a drop in the ocean.
Commissioning funded with debt will be problematic if it is lower prices for longer. No one can argue that LTR will have lower opex than LLL. Every broker report shows this. They will be top quartile.
The best cure for low prices is low prices. Goulamina even with commissioning should be profitable.
I think we will have a lower price environment for longer which places LLL well is more potential product stays offline for longer.
LTR has to start commissioning regardless of the price environment being conducive or not, because if it does not then the SP will be caned. The SP is already pricing in huge execution risk.
Goulamina with a much simpler operation, and a partner who is contractually obligated to take the product before any other source should mean that the commissioning and ramp up will be easier, without the financial pressures of LTR.
I am not denying that SH here would sooner be in a different place than we are currently. This is suppose to be an exciting time for shareholders, not the current circumstances.
But i am quietly confident a resolution is not too far off. It is best the resolution covers all the 5 outstanding issues and locks away any other potential issues at the same time. It’s a long game. Rush it and we potentially kick more cans down the road.
You can see why so many want Goulamina to fail. I do not believe the claptrap posted by some that they don't want LLL holders to lose their money.
It is in others best interest for LLL to fail. Goulamina will be a price setter for Opex.
Gold plated high opex mines in WA have everything to lose IMO.
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