Thanks Dazaliam, I've just watched this Paydirt presentation, and here is my summary and thoughts.
Brilliant presentation, and company profile.
I had to laugh though, when Simon got a little embarrassed saying they basically have so much high grade spodumene, that it's more than they want or need, and apparently it's everywhere, but they already have a 20 year mine life, but I'd say they could eventually push that out to beyond 30 years of high grade spodumene if they wanted, fairly seamlessly.
What did he say about the extensional drilling ... "we got 20 metres at 1.8% in areas we didn't expect, or want, it's in our waste rock area". This really made me chuckle, when I think about all those explorers that would have wet dreams about getting a result like that in even one of their main central areas, but LLL have it in the waste rock area. A classic, Simon was almost being apologetic for it actually being too good.
And 2% in grade at many drill holes that were ended at 150 metres previously, stopped at the time in 2018 due to financial constraints. And the great problem they have now, at the moment, is the deeper they go the higher the grades are occurring. Jeez, what a problem.
Basically, the deposit is proving to potentially be larger than huge, almost embarrassingly so, which presents them with a problem, but a good one - if they're getting 20 metres at 1.8% in their waste areas, and many 2% results below 150m, then where the hell are they going to put the waste?
I've said this before, stage 2 in the DFS was modeled at 850ktpa, but listening to this presentation, and knowing Ganfeng, they will eventually easily go over one (1) million tpa at high grade, Ganfeng can't help it, they want everything they can get, and more.
It was also interesting that the 2.9 Billion NPV in the DFS was based on an approximately $1,000 dollar price for spodumene, it's now $5,000 - so to get a current fair NPV value based on that, do you multiple 2.9 by 5? You probably don't do that, because that would be too extreme, how could a revised DFS by LLL reach a NPV of $14 Billion - crazy - surely that would be dreaming, so being reasonable, it would probably be more like a 6 or 7 Billion NPV.
It's shaping up to be, possibly ... the third most valuable spodumene deposit in the world, and certainly in the top 5.
My only worry, but hope, is that someone doesn't take this company out too early, before it reaches something like a $6 Billion market cap, at least, which it should easily achieve, after a one (1) mtpa stage 2 is in operation.
That would equate to about a $5 dollar share price, but that wouldn't be until possibly 2027 or later.
I don't mean to be too optimistic, not deliberately, but please watch the presentation, from a company perspective, it seems dynamic.
Sure, it is in Mali, but I've never seen any of the gold miners having problems there, and Mali is Africa's third largest gold producer, so why can't it also be Africa's first largest spodumene producer.
Gw
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