On the subject of the African discount, or Mali sovereign risk,
3 issues stand out as overblown, transitory, or not relevant - AVZ, FFX and 'long running' rebel skirmishes in Mali's northern frontier.
And yet the way people are mitigating this is to trade quickly and/or hold smaller positions resulting in a choppy chart pattern when really we should be seeing higher average volumes and a clear uptrend building on itself as it attracts wider interest from both traders and investors.
I hope the financial analysts that were briefed recently by Simon appreciate the favourable risk/reward on offer here that the average punter has missed.
I can just see it, 6 months down the line , first revenues and much higher share price and punters remorse..' if only I'd had the guts to buy more earlier'..' all those concerns came to nothing and everything went to schedule '...and the lament 'it was so obvious really...'
On the flip side, say the skirmishes escalate into a 'military operation', rest assured it won't happen over night. They never do. There will be plenty of time to down size or exit positions if you pay attention to news coming out of Mali. Simple measure.
Once you strip back the perceptions of risk , it becomes apparent that the sp will be higher than $2 this time next year unless Putin exiles to Mali.
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