Violent death rate per capita in Mali may have indeed caught up to the USA last year. Which is awful news to be sure. But nobody seems to mind about the US as an investment scenario...
But I do think it a short term spike. Wagner are going to make quite good progress compared to the French in reducing it given their rules of engagement are not constrained at all. A nice way of saying if you wanna play, we're gonna wipe out your whole village, that word spreads and is quite a disincentive. Nor do they have a vested interest in letting the violence continue like France and Western allies did. (Attracting jihadis to the area keeps them out of Europe - and this was almost certainly in the plans of both French and US intelligence services IMO - even to the point of likely funding and facilitating groups to attract fighters from North Africa and Syria). A lot of those foreign fighters are dead, or deciding Niger & Northern Burkina Faso is a safer place to be than Mali now.
Though there was an attack in central Mali last week (some 740 km away from Goulamina - one of the closest attacks) that killed 9 people. The attack was a failure in that it targeted military camps. But Wagner/Malian drones, probably the Turkish Bayraktar Tb2 (below) blew the crap outta their suicide trucks before they reached the camp. Malian procurement of their own surveillance & military drones over the last year is showing good dividends in dealing with militant groups who now mostly come via Burkina Faso, and not from Mali itself. I don't think you need to be a genius to predict that bringing motorbikes and trucks to a drone fight is a losing proposition. Real progress.
The mining industry keeps Mali afloat. It will be protected. Even if there was an attack on a mine site, sure it would be unfortunate, but a short term issue, the same as if there was a huge cyclone in Port Headland or Darwin. Life goes on pretty quickly, the gov steps in to help, and people get back to it. Like Bali did, like Paris did after attacks. like everywhere does after a cyclone. So I think anyone worrying over that aspect is over thinking it anyways.
Plus the area Goulamina is in, is one of the historically more peaceful areas in all of Africa. Completely different culturally and tribally from Northern, or Central Eastern Mali/Burkina Faso. They don't want any part of what happens up there. Most of historical & recent trouble in Mali is with Toureg people (green), and now localised trouble with Dogon people. (Blue).
Goulamina is in the peaceful beige area, and the south west of it too. Indeed the name of the tribal people here derives from the word for infidel because they initially resisted conversion to Islam. Though Islam is predominate in the area now, it is mixed with traditional religion ie - they're not extremists round this way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bambara_people
If this mine was in the Toureg , even Gao area of Mali I wouldn't be invested. Mopti would be a pass. But Goulamina is in a good area, with good people, happy to invest there and I think both investors and locals are going to benefit immensely.
Been a while since I reviewed all this stuff. Thanks for reminding me.
ITMT over the last week in the USA 18 people died in mass shootings. Just mass shootings. Probably 15 times that in regular ole shootings given the murder rate via guns is at 20,000 people per year.
LLL Price at posting:
51.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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