256lith, you need to take in percentage ownership.
Pilbara own 100% of their project, LLL own only 40% to 45% of their project.
When doing calculation you should always err on the conservative and think that the Mali govt will take their other 5%, which only give LLL a 40% ownership.
The Pilbara market cap is currently $14 billion at 800 tpa, or thereabouts, approximately.
40% of $14 billion is approximately 5.5
5.5 times the current Leo price is about $5.70, and if you apply some African discount, as there always is in the market, then you get the $4 to $5 range once the SECOND stage of Goulamina is in FULL production, which is not for 3 to 4 years at best.
Logically then, all other things being equal and stable, a price of over $4 dollars could be achieved sometime in 2026 or 2027 - that is, in 3 to 4 years from now.
These are my rational and logical calculations, however, you must realize that in a 3 to 4 year period, a myriad of other events and factors can enter the equation, so every estimate today can simply become supposition when applied to a 5 year time frame for example.
Gw
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