I find that many people that get into stocks like Leo, are not investors, but more gamblers looking for a short term return.
The fundamentals of Leo are sound, Ganfeng would not have done a 50/50 JV with us if they had any doubts, let alone let us manage the project.
Lycopodium are one of the best in the business to be awarded the EPC contract and have a lot of African experience and of course did our DFS so know the project.
Leo will be a cash cow, just as PLS is today. Their latest BMX auction achieved US$6188 (SC6 $6841 equivalent) with 41 bids. That is AUD$50m for 1 shipment of 5k tonnes. Admittedly that is a spot price not a contract price, however we will be producing 506k tonnes pa, that’s 100 times more, A$5b pa at those prices or $2b in sales for our 40% share.
Even if the contract price was half that, we’d still have sales of $1b yet our market cap is less than $500m
As you can see, there will be massive rewards for those willing to wait 2 years as long as you have the confidence Simon can pull it off - Ganfeng do.
And it’s not like we’ll go from $500m to multi billion MC overnight in 2 years time, it will be an incremental increase as the project advances.
We’ll look back and think wow, I could have bought LLL for 36c back in July’22.
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