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dazaliam

5,908 Posts.

1933

20/03/24

19:56

Post #: 72982640
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Originally posted by xfactor1 ↑

So, you're saying that the Mining Company (Lithium du Mali S.A. or LMSA) that was established and granted the Explotation Permit (equivalent of a mining license) on August 23, 2019 (via the authorized transfer from Timbuktu on March 24, 2022), will have its mining license revoked and awarded solely to Ganfeng?

If this is what you're saying, for what sensible reason or what would be the liklihood of this happening after the resolution of this situation? Is it based on mere speculation or a gut feeling?

It's important to note that this current complication was largely anticipated by the market a couple years back. Brokers and analysts were communicating this to their clients from 2022 onward. Of course, no one knew exactly how things would play out, but there was a certainty that the Malian government would retaliate in response to Firefinch's actions (didn't pass the pub test), and it was expected to happen closer to production.

The prevailing sentiment was though that the outcome of this situation, coupled with the economic benefits that LLL received by being in a joint venture with Ganfeng (e.g., receiving materials at cost + receiving their technical expertise) in addition to having access to cheap labor, would ultimately net out compared to WA producers.

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You asked for an example of how Mali could punish Leo without affecting the project so I provided one. Could it happen? Look over the fence at our neighbours in the DRC. Will it happen after a resolution? No, I fully trust the Junta, do you? Do you believe there will be investor confidence in Leo after a resolution? Get it commissioned and flog it, Leo's time in Mali is done imo. Gut feeling.

LLL Price at posting: 50.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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