I have done calculation of cash backing up to June 2025 based on current information we have atm.
Part 1: Consideration from the 40% sale
I personal think the company will return the net proceeds (35.8c per share) to shareholders by June 2025.
| Part 1: Net Proceeds of 40% Sale |
| Item | US$ (m) | AU$/US$ | AU$ (m) |
| 40% Sale | $342.70 | 0.67 | $511.49 |
| 15% CGT | -$51.41 | 0.67 | -$76.72 |
| Transaction Cost | | | -$5.00 |
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|
|
|
|
| Total AU$ (m) | $429.77 |
|
| SOI (m) | 1200 |
|
| NAVPS | $0.358 |
Part 2: Cash Balance as of Jun 2025
I have allowed all income and expenses up to June 2025 and we will have 7.4c per share cash balance (or $89m) at the end of Jun 2025.
I hope maybe the company can distribute 4c per share and leave $41m in the bank for their next journey. If this is the case, we gonna get 40c per share return in total by the second half of 2025.
| Part 2: Cash Balance as of Jun 2025 |
| Item | US$ (m) | AU$/US$ | AU$ (m) |
| Cash March 2024 | | | $69.30 |
| 5% Sale Leftover | $5.00 | 0.67 | $7.46 |
7% Interest of US$171.2
(Allowed 6 month) | $5.99 | 0.67 | $8.94 |
| FFX Payment | | | $11.50 |
| Contractor Income | | | $1.00 |
| Interest Income | | | $3.07 |
Corporate Cost
to Jun 2025 | | | -$12.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total AU$ (m) | $89.28 |
|
| SOI (m) | 1200 |
|
| NAVPS | $0.074 |
Part 3: NPV of 1.5% royalty pre-tax
The pre-tax NPV for this part is 8.7c per share based on US$1200/t SC6. I think for this part, the tax is paid in Australia only. In Australia, every single cent the company paid will become franking credit. If we assume this part do not involve into other business and any income is distributed as dividend with franking credit, then it comes as 8.7c per share. Or maybe we can simply sell it for 6c per share?
| Part 3: NPV of 1.5% Royalty Pre-tax |
| Item | US$ (m) | AU$/US$ | AU$ (m) |
1.5% Royalty
Pre-tax NPV 10% | $72.94 | 0.7 | $104.20 |
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|
|
|
|
| Total AU$ (m) | $104.20 |
|
| SOI (m) | 1200 |
|
| NAVPS | $0.087 |
(20min delay)
