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50.5¢ leo lithium limited

Thanks xfactor1. Wilsons lithium price forecast is more...

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8horse

34,304 Posts.

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06/02/24

21:38

Post #: 72271495
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Originally posted by xfactor1 ↑

Sharing Wilsons' updated report on LLL below.

Regarding their Target Price, it's important to note the following:

Project NPV is valued at A$5.24/share and LLL's effective project interest of 36% ownership (after Malian Government's 10% free-carry) equates to NPV of A$2.01/share.

Wilsons states that if LLL chose to liquidate their remaining 35.5% economic interest in Goulamina at the same valuation as their recently sold 5% stake in the asset (sold for US$65m to JV partner Ganfeng), this would still result in a company valuation of ~A65cps (~30% above the suspended share price).

Wilsons target price of 45cps is only based on a conservative 30% discount to the ‘liquidate scenario’ valuation (point 2), which will be rerated / re-linked to their assessment of project NPV (A$2.01/share) once production commences later this year and when there is more certainty over the regulatory and ownership outlook (coming shortly).

@fooca @Red Baron @8horse @manny100 @dazaliam @MM0 @franky1 @zzya1979

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Thanks xfactor1.
Wilsons lithium price forecast is more realistic, US$2,000/t for 2028, and long term over US$1,600/t. Where Woodmac made a ridiculous price forecast, US$850/t until 2028.
LLL Price at posting: 50.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
11 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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