It's a live discussion, for sure. The ASX release was actually...

It's a live discussion, for sure.

The ASX release was actually quite vague about the specifics and what growth is expected, there are very little facts here - no deals announced for the new factory capacity, no new JVs. The existing factory has about 10x capacity of current sales, and there is no roadmap to increasing sales tenfold in the next couple of years. That's nearly 1000 per cent growth on current sales, whereas FY22 sales were +19% on FY21.

Total units sold in FY22 by VMT were 37,181 (to quote AGM presentation), which was +19% on FY21. There is a lot of growth needed to surpass the capacity of the existing factory (300,000 units pa), so the logical thing to consider is what will be produced for where in the second factory. The info release from VMT reproduced below references "future strategy" which opens up a world of unknown possibilities.

We know the market for electric two-wheelers in China has been booming, per the IEA Executive summary – Global EV Outlook 2022 – Analysis - IEA:
"China accounts for 95% of new registrations of electric two- and three-wheeler vehicles and 90% of new electric bus and truck registrations worldwide. Electric two- and three-wheeler vehicles now account for half of China’s sales. The speed of charging infrastructure roll-out in China is faster than in most other regions."

Electric two/three-wheeler sales share by region, 2015-2021 – Charts – Data & Statistics - IEA

Given the Soco JV is souring, not unreasonable to consider the conditions restricting Vmoto from selling in China may fall away.

To speculate, this would be mass production of low-margin simpler bikes into the Chinese market.

Or, there is some massive deal cooking for Indonesia etc that is going to blow everything out of the water, and we can retire. I hope for this outcome, but it would be pure folly to discount the above discussion given the vague information provided. We're definitely left in the "hope for the best" world, that's basically the investment thesis for VMT at the moment, it's just a good old punt - I for one am glad I hold a portfolio of stocks and this one is just a part of it, gottalove that.