Hi
@dangar apologies for tardy reply..... and I think my post wasn't as clear as I would have liked it to be.(problems of a written one off post
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/66055097/single).
Rethinking that post
1. I was probably better off not posting it at all....I think it does lead to confusion
2. I have to admit I am not an expert at "what the **ck" formula S&P DJ Indices uses to rebalance/determine who's in/who's out of the ASX200 each quarter, so my guestimate is as good as anybody else's.
3. Reviewing it I have gone by S&P's Global Fact Sheet dated 31/01/2023, which didn't specify which company was currently at the 200th position (by current MC) but said it was $756mil. SO in all likelihood this is one company that will be replaced in the official ASX200 Index constituents.
BTW when it probably entered the index it probably was a $1.3bil MC company, but as we know sometimes SP/MC halve pretty quickly.
Now if anyone knows for sure how the Quarterly Rebalance of ASX200 is derived/worked out by S&P DJ Indices I'd love them to post it here.The Factsheet from S&P is here
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/idsenhancedfactsheet/file.pdf?calcFrequency=M&force_download=true&hostIdentifier=48190c8c-42c4-46af-8d1a-0cd5db894797&indexId=124611 but doesn't provide any information on Methodology (that's their IP I suppose)
My research would SUGGEST that 17 current members (according to CMC StBr & Commsec list of ASX200 members) are "at risk" of being dumped sometime either in March or June rebalance. So unless those lists are wrong..... (of course unlikely all 17 will be dumped, usually only 5-10 are)
Potential Dumps from most likely to least
IMU NVX MP1 LNK WAF ING BGA UMG LKE BRN SLR GUD ABC KAR MND CGC ARF (ranging from $867mil to $1.37bil recently)
Potential Additions from most likely to least
JDO SYR BGL NWH
ARU PTM AX1 IMD PWH CVV GRR VSL
but of course S&P has certain rules based around min. liquidity and free-float, as well as not including "companies" such as MFF (even though they have MC $1.5bil) because they are LICS/funds investing in companies already listed on ASX (which makes sense not to include them) as well as companies which are headquartered overseas, and predominantly have OS shareholders. (ResMed still has predominantly Aust shareholders, thus is included)
I use Listcorp
https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ to view ALL ASX listed company's MC, ARU today is listed at Position 234 (at $1.34bil) ahead of several of current "in the ASX200 Index" companies (ie most listed above IMU to CGC)
Hoping my big buy order at 0.61 gets taken out today.....
great to see new high earlier today @0.66
(20min delay)