@PARdonthepunARU are "waiting", NO, negotiating with GE Renewables for 30-35%of production (1500 tonnes) binding Offtake agreement and finalising signed binding Offtake for 500 tonnes with Siemens Gamesa (both companies Wind Turbine producers) Hyundai/Kia have signed binding OT for 35%. Once these are signed I envisage the rest will follow,including Funding with probably close to $A1.1 bil coming from the 3-4 Govts (ExportCreditAgencies) of Aust, Germany, Canada +/- SthKorea. Commercial Senior Debt funding may follow (at LIBOR + 3-4%pamargin for 5 to10 year periods) for hopefully $A300mil and finally Shareholders will be requested to put up $A250-300mil at the latest probable time ie 2025. The likelihood is that the Senior Debt funders will want some equity swap option with their deal, so it will be upto management to negotiate for us shareholders best interest ie swapping debt (or payable interest) into shares/equity at the highest price/lowest value possible, such that existing holders are not significantly diluted.
The negotiating of OffTake agreements are time-consuming and complex, and need to have a mountain of detail, and although it would have appeared ARU had many potential OTs on the go/juggling many balls, mygut feel is that the OffTakers still are playing hardball with conditions/pricing in these agreements, such that ARU is finding ithard to de-couple the pricing from ex-China pricing asper https://www.metal.com/Rare-Earth-Oxides/201102250162 at current pricing of $US62 per kg, the DFS Mark2 (Nov 2022)would have the EBITDA drop from $US409mil pa to about $US115milpa.($A172mil) DFS assumed NdPr oxide pricing of $US125/kg. So assuming a X10 valuation EV/EBITDA thats a $1.7bil MC, discounted to todays dollars (8% discount rate) and you have a MC estimate atEOFY2028 (full production) of $1.16bil/2.3bil SOI (counting the ARUO) gives a current SP valuation of 50c. So at NdPr of$US125/kg the DFS states NPV of approx $A2.4bil or basically $1.04 /share. But of course who is to say that the multiple couldn't become a 12 or 15 or even a 20+ in times of crises !! ARUs value lies in its strategic value in this increasing difficult geo-political world, and the fact that it takes over 10 years+ to get(ex-China) supply up and running (discovery, resource delineation,chemistry, approvals, mine, processing plant, waste handling)
ARU could one day (in the 2035+ era) a very very important company strategically for the ex-China supply, our Offtakers and others come a knocking (even Musk !!) for more NdPr supply that ARU having likely by then discovered/Measured an even bigger resource at Nolans that expansion of the Processing Plant is inevitable, with a likely doubling+ of production. China will fight tooth and nail to keep supplying as much of the world's NdPr needs as possible but ROW production will likely hit 50% by 2040, and with LYC, ILU and ARU all producing in Australia, Oz will likely have a 30% world market shar eby then (All Forward looking statements, and all IMHO, much based on how the Geo-politics are trending, and of course the world continues on this path of Net-Zero by 2050, AND Aust keeps backing potential producers like ARU)
All IMVHO, DYOR (cause I have), GLTA(patient)LTH "Build it they (even Musk) will come for more"
(20min delay)