General Discussion, page-497

I have had no interest in IPL since it 'bagged' for me quite some time ago. They are not even on my current Watchlist.
You do realise that there is a time to buy things and a time to sell things. Just because a stock is low priced does not make it necessarily good value. Just because a stock price goes vertical does not make it a good time to buy, either. It's complicated, hey, and everyone gets it wrong more often than they often admit, until one day if you are lucky you strike a good patch.
One thing I can add to JL's analyses that might be helpful, is that it is very difficult JL to tell from outside exactly when a Company goes insolvent. You're old enough to remember Alan Bond, Robert Holmes a Court etc. in previous times. Going gangbusters until the tide went out, then in retrospect obvious for all to see. Younger readers can Google 'Navarre Minerals' or 'Aurora Metals' for today's real time examples. Of course, if you were a worker at Aurora you could see the warning signs when their suppliers declined to sell them fuel and even food for their camps due to unpaid previous debts and the staff were not getting paid.
Often the full-time whistle is blown by a creditor, Evolution Mining in the real time case of Navarre, who has probably seen the writing on the wall and acted to shore up their own security in advance. Banks are very good at doing this. In every case, though, shareholders are unsecured creditors and way down the pecking order. NRZOA holders, thanks for playing.
So what would the insolvency play be here, for NRZ? I'd say Chinese interests would see their best hope of recovering something would be to make off with the ISG control technology. Personally, I think it won't turn out to be of much use to them, but hey, not my special field of interest so I'm just guessing. You'll never be able to penetrate that far into outback China to definitively find out.
Daelim are owed millions for a lot of masterful elevation drawings of factory buildings. Rusting pipes and non transportable buildings in the SA desert are not going to be of any practical use to them. They have one of their mid-level executives on the NRZ Board, if I'm not mistaken, who is probably trying to come up with a plan around how to explain this cluster to the Family back in S Korea. With great difficulty and loss of personal reputation, I'd say.
Barrenjoey? Bunch of ex UBS sharps who will just move on to the next billable deal, if needs be. <shrugs shoulders>
Most people think they know the ASX Disclosure Rules. Link ---->
https://www.asx.com.au/documents/rules/Chapter03.pdf
Fewer people seem to bother reading the Exceptions in Rule 3A. It's perfectly normal, JL, under 3A for ASX Companies to not disclose things for valid reasons. So the fact that NRZ has not disclosed something does not mean it is not happening. They are protected by Rule 3A
I'd say JL currently has about 90% chance at the moment of being correct in his broad overall summation, that this one is another one heading for the scrap heap. Of course by giving exact "day of falling over" calculations, which is not possible, see above, you just open yourself to multiple cheap shots from CS and others. These guys then look like genii while providing nothing actually useful to the conversation. Why I say 90% [approx] is due to the numerous unmistakable clues, staff cashing in their options as they leave, no recent Announcements, millions behind on their debt payments while scraping the barrel getting a loan secured by NRZ's possible Tax Rebate for the 2023 Tax Year, etc. Certainly the 10% outsider could still get up, making fools of The Three Musketeers. But will the reward for that to The Faithful be worth the present downside risk?
As far as JL being the most moderated here, others should realise that nearly all moderated posts occur on HC because they are reported. So JL suffers more than most from mean spirited people who have their heads in the sand, are not interested in fair debate and are trying to curate the conversation for their own financial benefit. IMO, of course.