I take the share price of a speculative stock with a grain of...

I take the share price of a speculative stock with a grain of salt, as it usually heavily reflective of newsflow and hype.

Did any of us long term holders think we’d be under 10c again ? Nope.

Did any of us long term holders think we’d be waiting this long for a strategic partnership OR funding ?
Nope.

What I continue to pay attention to, are the folks intimately involved with the project, who have big $ invested.
CNE haven’t sold a single share, despite being millions of $ in the hole.
Daelim haven’t sold a single share, despite being millions of $ in the hole. In fact, they’ve been continuing work on the BFS and are happily pushing payment dates back, whilst the company finalizes the current strategic partnership. They’ve done about $20M odd worth of work, to date.

Both entities have board seats too, so they know more than you or I.

If you invest in a speculative stock for the fundamentals, it’s always smart to trade a small portion when it runs up … because the overwhelming majority of speculative stocks on the ASX will never make a profit. That’s a fact.

Despite the delays, I’m still confident that this company will eventually achieve a valuation much much higher than the current MC. They’ve done well with the hydrogen deals (recently) …. But years of ticking essential but boring boxes, has taken its toll on the SP.

But they have achieved much, and although I can criticize a few things…. They’ve done everything to date that they said they would (just not on the same timeline).

The China/Australia relationship deteriorating PLUS COVID, has provided challenges… but Justyn has steered the company through them all.

I don’t mind being mocked for my optimism, because to me the writing is still on the wall that this company has a very high chance of successfully getting to production and receiving a significant re-rate.
Cash is low though, and a small CR is likely on the cards in the near future (recent interview with Eureka emphasizes that the company is only raising small amounts, and doesn’t expect to need to CR again in the same capacity POST deal).

I actually prefer to be undervalued before significant catalysts, because the stock is unlikely to get sold off on the news AND the bigger % gains usually encourage more FOMO.

Aside from more dilution with a lower SP, I’m actually not concerned at present in the slightest.


All IMO, DYOR etc etc


Cheyne