So I had a discussion with PL during the break between Xmas and...

So I had a discussion with PL during the break between Xmas and NY going over PAM & its "Asian Partners" (so excluding all things related to Chile)

Might have been more like "polite venting" on my part, due mostly to the feeling that our "Partners" and the Thai Gov't do not appear to have the sense of urgency and understanding of the supply chain that PAM needs them to have (which of course is not true and an arrogant and uninformed point of view).

That said - it is just a point of view. What forms that view is simply this

1. In Dec 2022, PTT (51%) and its partner Gotion (49%), announced a JV for the production and export of battery modules and packs in the Eastern Economic Corridor of Thailand by the fourth quarter of 2023.

2. In Dec 2023 ... so in just 1 year ... Gotion announced the completion of its inaugural battery pack at their joint venture facility in Rayong Province, Thailand, with an initial annual capacity of 2GWh expandable to 8GWh.

So small, but built and producing in 1 year! But being practical a Battery factory "consumes" CAM (Cathode Active Material). And CAM plants consume either Lithium Carbonate or Lithium Hydroxide which are either refined from hard rock or brine (practically speaking and keeping it simple). These batteries (a 38KWh LFP unit with 400 KM range) are going to power EV from Chinese electric car innovator Hozon Auto in early 2024.

3. OK great .. making LiBs in Thailand for EVs made in Thailand ... BUT YOU ARE IMPORTING CAM from CHINA. This is not a vertically integrated supply chain that the Thai Gov't wants. If they are truly serious then this is THEIR ONLY OPTION (it actually is).

To borrow from the investor presentation, I've adapted "PAM's advantage" as follows:





You can't make CAM without Lithium Carbonate and you can't make Lithium Carbonate without a Lithium Resource and PAM has the only JORC MRE in Thailand (that I'm aware of ... likewise PL)

So the point I was making (strongly) to PL was that WHO ELSE can deliver Li Chemical from a local Thailand resource. So either its
(a) work with PAM the company in a JV
or
(b) PAM sells the RKLP and someone else develops the project.

If true, then why is IRPC "dicking around"? There does not need to be a DFS for RKLP - we have a JORC MRE plenty big enough to supply enough Li2CO3 to a CAM plant to supply a 8GWh Gigafactory.



Why wait? If we are the only game in town, then fast track it Thailand (I consider PTT/IRPC as State "directed" companies ... sure they are publicly listed but so are many state sponsored entities around the world).

What's a PFS and then DFS going to tell you (it's a rhetorical question). IRPC/PTT are contibuting CAPITAL. PAM is contributing the Resource. A Chinese company will be contributing lepidolite processing knowledge (maybe even IP) to manufacture Li2CO3.

Sure, you want to get the flow sheet right ... but that's why the Chinese partner is invited.
Sure, you don't want to be writing blank checks either ... and I'm sure writing a US$200M check and seeing that get burned without proper return will be career ending for a few ... but we are in the "trough" presently of a multi-cycle shift of the supply/demand curve ... sound investments now offer great future returns. Will the Resource at RKLP deliver enough LCE to a CAM to manufacture enough CAM for 8GWh pa of capacity (at a minimum).



Do you need to know all the economics to make the capital investment - what I'm getting at here is when ExxonMobil made its DLE Brine investment to acquire acreage in Arkansas did it need a PFS/DFS/BFS ... PTT/IRPC this is an asymmetric risk/reward investment for Thailand - to be or not to be an integrated battery suppy chain??

So the net net was simply - patience - 2024 has a lot in store. Nothing new - we are dependent on a JV partnership (IMO there is no way that PAM can raise enough capital to progress RKLP much further ... not everyone will agree with that view).

The "missing link" to me is the CAM plant - not aware of any announcements of such for Thailand ... without a CAM plant, PAM would be exporting Lithium Carbonate to ??? (if China then what's the point ... China has locally produced lithium carbonate) only to import CAM back to Thailand to manufacture LiB at the Gigafactory.

Maybe there is a mega JV with CAM plant and OTA for Li2CO3???