What's your basis for claiming that the most likely scenario is...

What's your basis for claiming that the most likely scenario is "supply will outstrip demand resulting in reduced prices"?

CBMM has always maintained production capacity comfortably above demand and regulated their sales to keep the FeNb in a small price band with low volatility compared to practically all other metals, The historic narrow price band is particularly apparent if you look at it in Australian dollars.

If strong demand for niobium anode materials eventuates in the next 3-5 years, particularly if it is focussed on mining trucks through superior whole of life costs, the niobium market could be very positive.