Some random thoughts below but overall hopeful we get some more insights from Paul at D&D next week to shed some light on all the key issues, including what 'refinements to the company's exploration approach to materially increase the project footprint in the Arunta region' are intended to target as referenced in the recent quarterly financial report (page 7).
Curious timing for the preso ann today - seems strange that it would be solely issued for D&D a week in advance. Seems to simply update the financials post-CR and holder pie chart beyond the info already issued in the 26 June mets preso.
The charters 38% Fib retrace did theoretically have us pulling back to the 14s before the next growth phase - as uncomfortable as this is at the moment I am hopeful that we will eventually see some triggers that will move us into the next upswing. If only so that 9Lives, aubin and our other charters can continue to use WA1 as their Fib theory case in point!
The fact that we continue to have small bot trades seemingly pushing the SP wherever it wants suggest that Regal or whoever it is are continuing to shake the tree in the absence of any real resistance. The broker data suggests that some LTH are selling post the 30/6 FY and Regal probably predicted that this was going to happen hence their farming exercise continues. Bot sales back and forth to their own entities appears to mean there is literally no downside for them in doing this. No doubt it will be turned around if we remain on track for ASX300 listing in Sept just in time to offload to the funds at a premium. That just might be the only short-term event that gets the bots back in alignment with us wanting the see the price recover... or perhaps they don't quite want us in the ASX300 yet. We will find out in Sept.
The other conspiracy theory is whether there is a suitor in the wings that is also keen to supress the overall MC to get leverage on a TO deal and to wear Paul & Co down to a minimum figure that might be less than they were hoping. Perhaps the bot masters are working on their behalf. I can only speculate and note that holders have suggested a TO not likely until feaso all done - I guess this all depends how bullish the bigger miners are in their own risk v return. Given the global uncertainties and the whole niche metal argument I guess you can understand them waiting it out until everything is proven up.
Given the overall market for miners has been depressed for several weeks it's hard to know how much you could apportion to broader market and economic outlook, particularly now with the Trump factor. Long-term supply, demand and pricing arguments for Niobium seem to be able to be made in either positive or negative frames and there are plenty of competing views that I have read. Datt summarised a pretty good argument in his own opinion piece 'The Big Post on Niobium' sent out via X last Friday.
If I'm honest I'm really hoping that the mgt team pulls a rabbit out of a hat with a big US deal - this is also what Datt is hoping for in his X post last Friday. The fact that he posted this almost tells you that he knows that we need it to see true value in the short to medium term. Hopefully our new US investors may be beneficial in getting some more inroads on this outcome. Would be ideal if we could identify who the recent CR parties were to shed some light on this, I have requested a copy of the current shareholder register and will post top 50 if it comes.
You can't really put any blame on mgt for any of the current movements. They got the MRE and mets out, and probably were hoping as we were for this to light a fire under the SP and flush out a TO offer or two. Early days yet but hopefully both still occur in due course. Turns out Oz was right when he said the initial MRE may not give the SP a boost in the short-term, that's experience for you!
Anyway, good luck all holders. Opinion only as usual.
WA1 Price at posting:
$15.41 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)