I agree, which is why I follow their progress fairly hawkishly....

I agree, which is why I follow their progress fairly hawkishly.

The reality is that ENR is currently still a way from having a fresh rock deposit comparable to Niobec. Per the numbers WA1 quote in their releases, Niobec has 3MT Nb2O5 @ 0.41%, Catalao has 0.49T Nb2O5 @ 1.01%. Both of these mines were sold at a similar time, Niobec for $530m in 2014, Catalao for $1.5b in 2016. Catalao also has a phosphate operation, but I think these prices demonstrate a fairly strong market preference for grade over volume.

I wrote an article here on why I think that the Catalao price was under fair value (Anglo American was in extreme distress at the time of sale, and the mine was in the process of transitioning weathered ore to fresh rock, with abnormally low output at the time of sale), and estimate that by operating profit, Catalao represents ~20% of CMOC's A$40b market cap today. On the other hand, considering the Niobec transaction, that acquisition price puts the deposit itself at low value net of capital.

My hope, or rather my bet, is that Luni is at least a Catalao, and that ENR is at most a Niobec, but as you say, uncertainty prevails in the meantime - I don't discount the possibility of ENR proving up, or even hitting something comparable to Luni.