General discussion, page-12095

Something i posted a few months ago, I cant remember where I found this first image but I decided to break it down;


I check the CAGR for every niobium alloy,

The total production came in at 158,000 metric tons, not including the battery market. If you include the pentoxide tones for the niche market it comes in at 171,000ts which is what the first image states.

There is an opportunity for WA1 to address the market gap, as CMOC has not scaled up their production over the past decade. This could be due to their phosphate-to-niobium ratio, which requires scaling up phosphate production to increase niobium output.

In 2020, CBMM upgraded their production capacity to 150,000 metric tons of ferroniobium per year, assuming 100% availability and ideal conditions. Adjusting for real-world conditions with 90% throughput and 85% availability, CBMM's actual production capacity is about 114,750 metric tons per year. CMOC's annual production is 10,000 metric tons per year, bringing the total from the two major producers to 124,750 metric tons. Add in the Canadian Niobec, 7000t, Total supply 131,750tpa.

This leaves a market gap of 40,000t supply deficit.

I stated 30ktpa before because I was being conservative.

The 171kt number doesnt take into account the demand if EV adoption takes off, I was hoping someone could shed some light on how much niobium pentoxide is needed for 1 standard Tesla, then look at the amount needed for 20% of EVs to use niobium.