WA1 wa1 resources ltd

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Where does the "5Mt Case", and the data quoted from it, come...

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aubin

670 Posts.

845

20/06/25

10:44

Post #: 79503433

Originally posted by Diesel74: ↑
Just for shits and giggles while we wait, I uploaded the original MRE and the most recent METS announcements into AI and got it to crunch some hypothetical numbers.

High-grade starter case – 2 Mt pa at 2.1 % Nb₂O₅ (all figures in Australian dollars)
Section Parameter Assumption / Result Source / note
1 Market & macro Spot niobium price (contained Nb metal) A $ 123 kg US $ 80 kg Nb × 1 US$ = A $ 1.54
2
FX rate (AUD : USD) 0.6504 RBA daily, 18 Jun 2025
3 Scale & grade Ore throughput 2 Mt pa user-specified
4
Head grade 2.1 % Nb₂O₅ high-grade lens 53 Mt @ 2.1 %
5 Metallurgy Flotation recovery 60 % Feb-25 locked-cycle tests
6
FeNb conversion recovery 95 % commercial typical; bench test 84 %
7
Overall ore → FeNb recovery 57 % 0.60 × 0.95
8 Operating costs Mining A $ 3.85 t-ore US $ 2.50 t × 1.54
9
Processing A $ 30.8 t-ore US $ 20 t × 1.54
10
G&A A $ 4.62 t-ore US $ 3 t × 1.54
11
Total site cost A $ 39.3 t-ore sum above
12
Conversion + logistics A $ 64.7 m pa scaled from 5 Mt case (pro-rata to Nb output)
13 Revenue & cash flow (annual steady-state) Contained Nb in FeNb 16.7 kt Nb pa 2 Mt × 2.1 % × 0.699 × 57 %
14
Gross revenue A $ 2.06 bn pa 16.7 kt × 1 000 kg × A $ 123
15
Site OPEX A $ 78.6 m pa 2 Mt × A $ 39.3 t
16
Conv./log./marketing A $ 64.7 m pa see above
17
WA royalty (5 %) A $ 102.9 m pa 5 % × revenue
18
EBITDA A $ 1.81 bn pa revenue – OPEX – royalty
19
Sustaining capex A $ 24.6 m pa 0.4 × 5 Mt case (A $ 61.6 m)
20
Pre-tax free cash flow A $ 1.79 bn pa EBITDA – sustaining capex
21 Capital & valuation Initial capex A $ 1.35 bn 5 Mt capex (A $ 2.31 bn) × (2/5)^0.6 scaling
22
Mine life (oxide lens 53 Mt) 26 yrs 53 Mt ÷ 2 Mt pa
23
Pre-tax NPV₈ ≈ A $ 18 bn 8 % real discount, 26 yrs cash flow, no debt or tax
Key observations
Cash-machine starter: despite a plant only 40 % the size of the 5 Mt case, the higher 2.1 % grade retains ~85 % of the revenue, driving an EBITDA margin >80 %.
Capital efficiency: an NPV / initial-capex multiple of ≈ 13× highlights how front-loading the high-grade ore supercharges returns.
Sensitivity guide: every ±A $ 10 kg move in the Nb price shifts annual EBITDA by ±A $ 167 m; every +5 pp in overall recovery adds ~A $ 150 m to annual EBITDA.
Expand
Where does the "5Mt Case", and the data quoted from it, come from? Do you have a full description of this 5Mt Case?

WA1 Price at posting: $14.52 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Where does the "5Mt Case", and the data quoted from it, come...

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	Section	Parameter	Assumption / Result	Source / note
1	Market & macro	Spot niobium price (contained Nb metal)	A $ 123 kg	US $ 80 kg Nb × 1 US$ = A $ 1.54
2		FX rate (AUD : USD)	0.6504	RBA daily, 18 Jun 2025
3	Scale & grade	Ore throughput	2 Mt pa	user-specified
4		Head grade	2.1 % Nb₂O₅	high-grade lens 53 Mt @ 2.1 %
5	Metallurgy	Flotation recovery	60 %	Feb-25 locked-cycle tests
6		FeNb conversion recovery	95 %	commercial typical; bench test 84 %
7		Overall ore → FeNb recovery	57 %	0.60 × 0.95
8	Operating costs	Mining	A $ 3.85 t-ore	US $ 2.50 t × 1.54
9		Processing	A $ 30.8 t-ore	US $ 20 t × 1.54
10		G&A	A $ 4.62 t-ore	US $ 3 t × 1.54
11		Total site cost	A $ 39.3 t-ore	sum above
12		Conversion + logistics	A $ 64.7 m pa	scaled from 5 Mt case (pro-rata to Nb output)
13	Revenue & cash flow (annual steady-state)	Contained Nb in FeNb	16.7 kt Nb pa	2 Mt × 2.1 % × 0.699 × 57 %
14		Gross revenue	A $ 2.06 bn pa	16.7 kt × 1 000 kg × A $ 123
15		Site OPEX	A $ 78.6 m pa	2 Mt × A $ 39.3 t
16		Conv./log./marketing	A $ 64.7 m pa	see above
17		WA royalty (5 %)	A $ 102.9 m pa	5 % × revenue
18		EBITDA	A $ 1.81 bn pa	revenue – OPEX – royalty
19		Sustaining capex	A $ 24.6 m pa	0.4 × 5 Mt case (A $ 61.6 m)
20		Pre-tax free cash flow	A $ 1.79 bn pa	EBITDA – sustaining capex
21	Capital & valuation	Initial capex	A $ 1.35 bn	5 Mt capex (A $ 2.31 bn) × (2/5)^0.6 scaling
22		Mine life (oxide lens 53 Mt)	26 yrs	53 Mt ÷ 2 Mt pa
23		Pre-tax NPV₈	≈ A $ 18 bn	8 % real discount, 26 yrs cash flow, no debt or tax

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