@Aj27 .. You've done something wrong in your calculations. 5.3Mt/a processed at a 2.1% grade, with 54.9% overall recovery gives 61,103.7 Tonnes of FeNb production not the 42,700T you have recorded.
Also I don't think there is any point in trying to work out such large production numbers. The last thing we or any other Niobium producer wants is a price war. I'm fairly sure that working in cooperation with the other producers for a starter mine in the up to 20,000T/a of FeNb, which is around the expected growth in market size, in the next few years are much better numbers to work with..
As we have so much high grade material, and given what has been tested in the Met testing, a higher grade starter pit at 3-3.5% could be expected at only 1Mt/a, requiring a much smaller capital input, allowing for room to expand later.
My rough numbers for a conservative scenario, working with partners and/or other Niobium suppliers, is around the following...
1Mt/a plant (with expansion allowed for in a stage 2 down the track), processing 3.5% ore, at a 55% recovery giving 19,250T/a FeNb at a price of $US40,000/t.
Revenue = $US770M = ~ $A1.2B.
Assuming partner, or extra equity, of 33% (of total equity) for capital costs = Revenue of $A800M for existing share of company.
50% EBITDA = $A400M.
SP of 15-20 multiple of EBITDA = ~$A90-$A120/sh.
Assuming I'm way out by 50% and we are still worth ~$45-60/sh which is a Mcap of $3-4B.
People with much deeper pockets than any of us, have already worked out these types of numbers, which comes to a 3-Disallowed at least from here.
We'll all know a lot more upon release of MRE and a future plan scenario...
(20min delay)