With respect to Royalty buisness and howto value CODEMIGon the...

With respect to Royalty buisness and howto value CODEMIG

on the low end of taking another royalty company like Deterra and use its Price Earning ratio of 15.56 if you think it same as CODEMIG.
I would think Australian private DETERRA is 100% worse than because CODEMIG Has been operating for 51 years in royalties it has a set perecntage

The ownership is a two edged sword .Private or Chinese hands would love CODEMIG and attach a premium to it 51% Stake and So control CBMM's behaviour. But the Brazilian Government is probably the only possible buyer so that would depress the value.


So Im going to stop on the following table which make the value of CBMM 3 time that of CODEMIG . Given the possibility of reaching Nameplate 150 kt/s in 2026 and keeping the exchange rate the same as we are at now around 66c per US you might get close to 58.7 Billion AUD in 2026 with 2030 around 72.4 Billion..

	CBMM valuation US Billion	throughput Nb kts	kts/Bill ratio	aud/US	CBMM AUD valuation Bil	CODEMIG US	CODEMIG aud	total araxa
2011	13.0	66	5.1	1.0	13.0	4.2	4.2	17.2
2023	19.7	100	5.1	1.5	29.5	6.4	9.6	39.1
2026	29.5	150	5.1	1.5	44.3	9.6	14.4	58.7	name plate 150
2030	36.4	185	5.1	1.5	54.7	11.8	17.8	72.4	Niobium Oxide 25 kt
axara % ownership contract					49%		51%
profits					75%		25%
Araxa% ownership valuation profit actual					75%		25%

.

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/brazils-cbmm-niobium-batteries-2030/

spending 80m US for Niobium oxide plant commsioning 2qtr /24 name plate 35 kts by 2030..25% percent of earnings
Have assumed Ferro-niobium has same sale price as Niobium Penta Oxide.

Emanual datt thought WA1 would be better served to go after the world Market share of 15% of Niobium penta oxide market where the innovation is happening

Enclosed is Statistica time series 2015 to 2021 for k tons asbacking for the 2023 100 kts

Statistica shows CBMM getting more than 100 ktons in 2019