I hope you are correct that it upsets the market as I have found a few coins at the back of the couch that need investing (and took a nice win on another stock recently
).
........
I've been doing some back of the envelope very raw calculations recently on the size of resource, being very, very, conservative, and consequently the mine and profitability of the operation based on the resource..
Assuming we have an area of just 800m X 350m X 35m deep of the 'core' high grade, that for these purposes I'll take as 1.6% Niobium (I know everyone will argue 'much larger' and 'much richer', but the point is being super conservative!!).
At a density of 2.5t/m3 we have about 25,000,000 tonnes of 1.6% grade, plus 6,500ppm TREO and 12% P2O5.
At a yearly mining rate of 1,000,000 tonnes per annum, and assuming a 66% recovery of everything, we would get a mine producing 10,500 tonnes of niobium, 4,290 tonnes of TREO and 79,200 of P2O5 which makes up about 30% of actual rock phosphate, so about 260,000 tonnes of rock phosphate. This being an annual production for 25 years..
Revenue at current prices would be around $US525M (Nb2O5), $US24M (TREO) and $US40M (P2O5), total being $US589M or $A906M. (please note!! I have no idea if it's possible to gain these 'other' minerals, we need to wait on Mets!!)
Given a cap cost of plant of $1B (because I have no idea what it would really cost) spread over 25 y =$A40M/yr plus operating and maintenance of $A261M/yr (based on isolated small copper mines actual costs for multiple processes and by products)..
Revenue $906M .... costs $300M = ~$A600M less tax = $420M/a.
Assuming we have to sell another 100m shares at $10 to finance mine (total worst case assumption!!) then we will have 160m shares sharing $420M profit or $2.60/sh..
At 12 times earnings makes that $31.50/sh, at pretty much the worst case possible, upside from there with much larger (and richer resource, lower mine cost and better financing) upside of a factor of at least 10 for share price...
So, yes please mister market, mark these shares DOWN a lot so I can buy up more!! (pretty please)...
(20min delay)