Because I couldn't help myself, once I started working on my own version of the MRE yesterday afternoon, I just kept at it until after 1 in the morning..
Mapping and identifying all the holes to date I have worked out a rough total of all the mineralisation and a smaller core area of higher grade..
I used a 2.6g/cm3 density as this seems likely just based on the original announcements that had 2.68-2.77 gravity shells in the earliest announcements. Plus when looking at other carbonatite deposits like Neobay in James Bay Canada, their bulk density is 2.93t/m3.
The actual density will change the numbers I came up with. For example if our bulk density proves to be as high as Neobay's, then add 10%, if they are lower than 2.6t/m3 then adjust accordingly.
Altogether around 175Mt of around 1.1% Nb2O5 (I didn't work out TREO or P2O5). Total about 1.8Mt all up.
Inside this is a smaller core area of around 60Mt of 1.6% Nb2O5, giving over 900,000 tonnes in the core areas. I did top cuts, I left out highest and lowest holes, played all sorts of averages, but because of the number of samples, none of it made any material difference, which is great for confidence levels.
I left out the deeper Niobium of which there is another 400,000 tonnes of lower grade 0.3%, however this could be much higher with deeper drilling. This deeper, lower grade, resource is likely to be the unweathered component of the intrusion itself, but we need lots more information about this from the company.
Mining the higher grade resource at an average of 1.6% at a rate of 1,000,000 tonnes per annum would give us a mine life of 60 years, and allowing for recovery of 78% (from Neobay's PEA), would give a production of 12,480t/yr of Niobium at around $US45,000/t. This gives around $A850m in yearly revenue assuming no by-products of TREO or P2O5. The phosphate might be difficult as a by product due to the isolation of the mine. Being a bulk commodity, unless we can backload it somewhere, then might not have much value, that's a shame..
Neobay's PEA if anyone is interested...
https://minedocs.com/20/James-Bay-Niobium-PEA-10132020.pdfCompared to Neobay, the PEA being November 2020, we have grade and in mining grade is King..
Just doing a quick comparison to gold grades, mining the 1.6% Niobium would be equivalent of an opencut gold mine, mining about a 9.8g/t resource at current pricing. Considering that 1g/t gold mines using open cut mining are extremely profitable at current costs and returns, it should tell us everything we need to know about the profits to be made with this mine. Start relatively small, build over time, throw huge profits at shareholders. To me this is looking like a fantastic long term hold unless we get taken out by a major.
I don't expect the remaining holes to make much difference in overall resource, they will just increase confidence levels in the numbers, likewise for further drilling programs to get a reserve.
It's a fascinating process collating the data for every hole. It's an emotional roller coaster, a few holes in a row of lower grade and the mind starts thinking I should dump on Monday morning, then a few high grade holes and the mind comes back to 'OK there are high grade areas' etc. Then when mapping it all, I printed out a map from the latest announcement and started marking all the higher grade stuff, it all came together in a very nice picture.
In the announcements we have always had some results of lower grade areas, but management have made sure to include some results from higher grade areas to accompany every announcement release, so any one announcement appears as results form all over the place. Only putting the whole lot together paints the big picture. If I had the computer savvy I'd post a picture of the physical map I've made.
Realistically, we could extend to the South East further, but even if there was further high grade in that area, it would not make a material difference to any mining operation. The way discount cashflows work revenue from 20+ years into the future are irrelevant, and we already have plenty for a small starter mine and the ability to grow organically from cashflow. We are easily the second biggest behind Araxa, especially in high grade material. I'll state again, grade is King and we have it in spades!!
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