Analysts see the recent rebound as short-lived. Zou expects the lithium carbonate price in China to average 300,000 yuan a ton this year."The recent price rally was primarily driven by restocking," said Chen Junquan, chief of multivariate business research section at state-backed China Minmetals Economic Research Institute."The May growth seen in the auto market, boosted by short-term policy support, is unlikely to last and lithium prices might fall below 200,000 yuan within this year," he added.
More production capacity coming online globally will also weigh on prices, said Chen and others.
Prices will likely fall to around 210,000 yuan a ton by next year, said Zou.
Manufacturers are also racing to develop new batteries using cheaper materials like sodium, which could serve as alternatives to lithium in the longer term.
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