I'm not going anywhere, I'll just keep my trades to myself! Funniest part is that I wouldn't have even got on to WA1 if I hadn't hit up a few of my perth friends for some speculative mining stocks last year to get my kids to start investing and learning about getting your money to do some work for you. They aren't investing much so I wanted to get them into something where they might see some decent growth compared to blue chips albeit with more risk. Cut our losses with the ones that didn't do well and reallocated to the ones that did, WA1 being the standout. I leveraged up once it was clearly apparent to me that the resource was substantial, that there were multiple upcoming triggers for more SP growth and that the mgt team have expertly mapped out the entire play to the benefit of all shareholders. Well done again Paul and team, and please keep up the good work!
What I lack in mining background I make up for with friends that do as well as a good measure of unbridled optimism.
My predictions for today. These are personal opinions only, not investment advice.
- MRE will be right at the tail end of the quarter - Friday 28th June? Either way this will nicely set up any LTHs who want to partially cash out in July after end of FY although no doubt most will hang on unless they have bills to pay. Mind you the 100 bagger club among you probably want to go for gold and hit a 500 bagger just so you can tell your grandkids about it.
- MRE will be double what Oz's initial estimate calculated. Oz, you may be a guru but I reckon your call on no movement after the MRE is about the only thing you may be wrong on. My guess is that we will see a 20% jump within 2w of the MRE coming out. My previous call in April was that we would be at $25 by end of June. After MRE this should push closer to $30. Still maintain that we will be closer to $50 by year end. Agree with others that TO offer will come swiftly.
- Min takeover offer that Paul will likely entertain will be $140 off back of MRE.
- Mets/recovery information to be the main announcements for July/Aug.
- Recovery rate to push 70%. BCM pulled 69% recently although obviously completely different resource.
- Bots to turn on upward pressure in advance of Sept ASX300 listing. Regal and Macquarie to ensure that minimum liquidity maintained in the meantime to ensure we hit all metrics.
- Funds that track the ASX300 - Vanguard ASX300 alone is a $57b fund and would likely allocate 0.0025-0.005% to WA1 if you look at the current % allocation of their tail-end, which would be worth circa $136-285m or 7-14m units at todays prices although price may be closer to $30-40 at that time. Other funds tracking the ASX300 - State Street, Blackrock, Vaneck, Einvest, IML, Perpetual, Global X, etc. Some of these aren't true index funds and rule out anyone not paying dividends to cut out the turnover of mining explorers. Either way there is a bucket load of investment to come. Most likely issue for them is that they won't be able to get a significant position due to existing shareholders holding out for TO.
I did mention I was optimistic! Seriously though I am just taking a semi-informed punt like the rest of you and hoping for the best.
They say you only pay tax when you are making money so overall a good position to be in. 50% CGT discount for min 12 month holding a big incentive for most.
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