General discussion, page-8915

I found this, I didn't believe it at first, so I ran some numbers and it seems plausible.

	Alloy	CAGR (%)	Niobium Percentage (%)	2024 Production (metric tons)	2024 Niobium Usage (metric tons)	2024 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons)	2025 Production (metric tons)	2025 Niobium Usage (metric tons)	2025 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons)	2026 Production (metric tons)	2026 Niobium Usage (metric tons)	2026 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons)	2027 Production (metric tons)	2027 Niobium Usage (metric tons)	2027 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons)	2028 Production (metric tons)	2028 Niobium Usage (metric tons)	2028 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons)	2029 Production (metric tons)	2029 Niobium Usage (metric tons)	2029 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons)
1	Niobium-Titanium (NbTi) Alloys	5.89	40	3,177	1,271	2,119	3,364	1,346	2,243	3,562	1,425	2,375	3,770	1,508	2,513	3,992	1,597	2,662	4,226	1,693	2,822
2	Niobium Superalloys	9.92	7.5	10,992	824	1,373	12,084	906	1,510	13,286	996	1,660	14,606	1,086	1,810	16,054	1,204	2,007	17,640	1,323	2,205
3	Niobium-Zirconium (NbZr) Alloys	7.2	1	1,072	11	18	1,149	12	20	1,231	12	21	1,319	13	22	1,414	14	23	1,516	15	25
4	Niobium-Aluminum (NbAl) Alloys	3	4	515	21	35	530	21	36	546	22	37	563	23	38	580	23	39	597	24	40
5	Niobium-Tin (Nb3Sn) Alloys	3	50	1,030	515	858	1,061	531	884	1,093	547	912	1,126	563	938	1,160	580	966	1,195	598	996
6	Niobium-Nickel (NbNi) Alloys	3	20	515	103	172	530	106	177	546	109	182	563	113	188	580	116	194	597	119	199
7	Niobium-Copper (NbCu) Alloys	3	25	206	52	87	212	53	89	219	55	91	225	56	94	232	58	97	239	60	100
8	Niobium-Tantalum (NbTa) Alloys	3	50	309	155	258	318	159	266	328	164	273	338	169	282	348	174	290	358	179	298
9	Microalloyed Steels (HSLA Steels)	5.6	0.065	105,600,000	68,640	114,400	111,500,000	72,475	120,792	117,740,000	76,531	127,552	124,340,000	80,821	134,702	131,320,000	85,358	142,263	138,710,000	90,156	150,260
10	Maraging Steels	4.5	4	523	21	35	546	22	36	571	23	37	596	24	40	622	25	41	650	26	43
11	Ferritic and Super Duplex Stainless Steels	3	1	1,030	10	17	1,061	11	18	1,093	11	18	1,126	11	19	1,160	12	19	1,195	12	20
12	Total				71,623	119,672		76,118	126,073		80,766	134,611		85,388	142,647		90,276	150,460		95,344	158,505

Total came in at 158k, this is not including the battery market, so i would assume it will come in closer to the 2029 demand of 171kt.

There will be a gap in the market for WA1 to cater for, CMOC have made no effort to scale up over the last 10 years. I think it has something to do with their phosphate to niobium Ratio, To scale up their Niobium they would have to scale up their Phosphate.

Now here is the kicker, in 2020 CBMM upgraded their production to produce 150,000 tons of ferroniobium. That is under 100% available and ideal conditions. if we make some slight adjustments to the real world, with 90% throughput and 85% availability, the adjusted production capacity for CBMM's ferroniobium is 114,750 metric tons per year.

CMOCs annual production is 10,000 metric tons per year.

Totaling 124,750 tons from the 2 major producers. This allows WA1 to fill the 40-50kt supply gap in 2029, which is also the magic number a 2mpta plant can produce per annum based on previous models that I mentioned the other week. (2.5% grade, 60%recovery & 85% availability).

Paul did mention that CBMM was welcoming of WA1. Help decrease supply risk, fill the gap and allow for better adoption of niobium products.