I found this, I didn't believe it at first, so I ran some numbers and it seems plausible.
Alloy CAGR (%) Niobium Percentage (%) 2024 Production (metric tons) 2024 Niobium Usage (metric tons) 2024 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons) 2025 Production (metric tons) 2025 Niobium Usage (metric tons) 2025 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons) 2026 Production (metric tons) 2026 Niobium Usage (metric tons) 2026 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons) 2027 Production (metric tons) 2027 Niobium Usage (metric tons) 2027 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons) 2028 Production (metric tons) 2028 Niobium Usage (metric tons) 2028 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons) 2029 Production (metric tons) 2029 Niobium Usage (metric tons) 2029 Ferroniobium Needed (metric tons) 1 Niobium-Titanium (NbTi) Alloys 5.89 40 3,177 1,271 2,119 3,364 1,346 2,243 3,562 1,425 2,375 3,770 1,508 2,513 3,992 1,597 2,662 4,226 1,693 2,822 2 Niobium Superalloys 9.92 7.5 10,992 824 1,373 12,084 906 1,510 13,286 996 1,660 14,606 1,086 1,810 16,054 1,204 2,007 17,640 1,323 2,205 3 Niobium-Zirconium (NbZr) Alloys 7.2 1 1,072 11 18 1,149 12 20 1,231 12 21 1,319 13 22 1,414 14 23 1,516 15 25 4 Niobium-Aluminum (NbAl) Alloys 3 4 515 21 35 530 21 36 546 22 37 563 23 38 580 23 39 597 24 40 5 Niobium-Tin (Nb3Sn) Alloys 3 50 1,030 515 858 1,061 531 884 1,093 547 912 1,126 563 938 1,160 580 966 1,195 598 996 6 Niobium-Nickel (NbNi) Alloys 3 20 515 103 172 530 106 177 546 109 182 563 113 188 580 116 194 597 119 199 7 Niobium-Copper (NbCu) Alloys 3 25 206 52 87 212 53 89 219 55 91 225 56 94 232 58 97 239 60 100 8 Niobium-Tantalum (NbTa) Alloys 3 50 309 155 258 318 159 266 328 164 273 338 169 282 348 174 290 358 179 298 9 Microalloyed Steels (HSLA Steels) 5.6 0.065 105,600,000 68,640 114,400 111,500,000 72,475 120,792 117,740,000 76,531 127,552 124,340,000 80,821 134,702 131,320,000 85,358 142,263 138,710,000 90,156 150,260 10 Maraging Steels 4.5 4 523 21 35 546 22 36 571 23 37 596 24 40 622 25 41 650 26 43 11 Ferritic and Super Duplex Stainless Steels 3 1 1,030 10 17 1,061 11 18 1,093 11 18 1,126 11 19 1,160 12 19 1,195 12 20 12 Total 71,623 119,672 76,118 126,073 80,766 134,611 85,388 142,647 90,276 150,460 95,344 158,505
Total came in at 158k, this is not including the battery market, so i would assume it will come in closer to the 2029 demand of 171kt.
There will be a gap in the market for WA1 to cater for, CMOC have made no effort to scale up over the last 10 years. I think it has something to do with their phosphate to niobium Ratio, To scale up their Niobium they would have to scale up their Phosphate.
Now here is the kicker, in 2020 CBMM upgraded their production to produce 150,000 tons of ferroniobium. That is under 100% available and ideal conditions. if we make some slight adjustments to the real world, with 90% throughput and 85% availability, the adjusted production capacity for CBMM's ferroniobium is 114,750 metric tons per year.
CMOCs annual production is 10,000 metric tons per year.
Totaling 124,750 tons from the 2 major producers. This allows WA1 to fill the 40-50kt supply gap in 2029, which is also the magic number a 2mpta plant can produce per annum based on previous models that I mentioned the other week. (2.5% grade, 60%recovery & 85% availability).
Paul did mention that CBMM was welcoming of WA1. Help decrease supply risk, fill the gap and allow for better adoption of niobium products.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- WA1
- General discussion
General discussion, page-8915
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 3,531 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add WA1 (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$15.25 |
Change
-0.190(1.23%) |
Mkt cap ! $989.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$15.50 | $16.10 | $15.22 | $3.836M | 245.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 260 | $15.22 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$15.28 | 99 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 260 | 15.220 |
2 | 867 | 15.180 |
1 | 81 | 15.170 |
1 | 66 | 15.150 |
1 | 867 | 15.140 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
15.280 | 99 | 1 |
15.380 | 270 | 1 |
15.390 | 867 | 1 |
15.430 | 867 | 1 |
15.470 | 1117 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 11/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
WA1 (ASX) Chart |