If the improved performance of batteries as shown at lab scale proves even close to these lab results in real world applications, as in the current bus fitted out by Toshiba, then the growth in Niobium use will be like nothing seen before.
The lab results show a tripling of battery life and a much faster charge time. This is all really logical as Niobium is such a good conductor, the 'spread' of power over cathodes and anodes would be much more even with Niobium relative to without..
Proven in real world situations, the addition of 1% Niobium (they haven't released how much is actually needed, but can assume only a little bit does a lot, like every other application), then just 50 gms of Niobium per kWh of battery, would make Niobium a must have for every battery producer..
According to McKinsey, the world will be producing around 4.7TWh/yr with a growth rate of 25%/yr...
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...ttery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circularSimple numbers on this 50gm X 4.7TWh = 235,000,000,000 gm = 235,000 tonnes of Niobium/yr.
This would add a cost of just ~$2-$5/kWh of battery storage, to more than double battery life and increase charge times and also possibly increase the energy density of batteries (makes them lighter for given output)..
https://www.global.toshiba/ww/products-solutions/battery/scib/next/nto.htmlThis would make not just our mine hugely profitable but also many other low grade ones that can't attract funding yet, as I would expect the price of Niobium to rise to make the low grade mines viable, to bring on supply to the market.
A price of $US100,000/t at least for pure Niobium to be added to cathodes/anodes would be expected. At 50gms/kw this only adds $US5/kWh.
Increased battery density might reduce weight to 2.5kg/kWh, meaning less, say 25gm of Niobium and only costing $2.50/kWh for a massive increase in overall performance, so perhaps only 117,000t/a use of Niobium for batteries by 2030. Even then, the 25% growth rate of batteries would mean the 117,500tonnes needed in 2030 would grow to 146,875 tonnes in 2031, just for batteries, on top of all other uses..
There is no way production of Niobium in the various forms could keep up with demand, if required for batteries, so 'some' batteries will be cheaper by not using Niobium, but the market will quickly choose those with Niobium, as much better bang for buck over battery life.
What it all boils down to is that by 2030-35 the demand for Niobium will be much higher than today, with most mines selling whatever they can produce. In every commodity this means those with the best grade and greatest overall quantity are easily the most valuable. The price of Niobium will go to ridiculous levels at some point to bring forward a lot of low quality resources into production, while existing producers will be minting cash, like what happened with lithium in 2021.
We'll be a producer by then with the equal highest grade mine in the world and looking to expand production, to keep up with the market and whoever we have deals with.
So many people want to look at the world as it was up to this point, then project the current into the future, without looking at what's far more likely to happen, given what we already know!!
If/when CBMM, CMOC, Niobec, Niocorp, Magris do a deal with one of the major battery manufacturers for Niobium, the world will change for us instantly. Good luck getting aboard cheaply then.....
(20min delay)