WA1

1.33%

$14.86 wa1 resources ltd

Sentiment: None Disclosure: Didn't hold long enough. Prognosis:...

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momentoftruth

774 Posts.

65

19/06/24

15:43

Post #: 74393533
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Originally posted by Wurlitch: ↑

@RAP003 for what it is worth I am expecting an MRE of 200Mt @ around 1% Nb2O5.
At the disclosed Met results this would produce 1Mt of Nb concentrate which would produce 1Mt of FeNb (65)
At a price of $25,000 AUD per ton this would mean a recoverable resource valuation of $409 per share.
An EV/R ratio of 1% = $4.09 per share.
At a ratio of 5% this becomes $20.49 per share.

Given the constraints of the Nb market, the lack of transparency in Nb pricing, Luni's location and the extended timeframe until production begins combined with WA1's position on the Lassonde Curve I feel a EV/R ratio of 2.5 is more realistic, this would equate to a SP of $10.22

If we project 8-10 years into the future Luni may produce around 30Kt of FeNb per year without disrupting the market at a price that probably will not be much different i.e. $25,000 per ton.
If Luni operates on an after tax margin of $12,000 per ton this would mean EPS would be around $3.60, (100m SOI 2030>.
Multiple this by a PER of 8 and you get a SP of $28.80 in 8-10 years time.

Given the expected spike in the current share price with the pending announcement of the MER I would consider it prudent to consider an exit strategy shortly after it is announced as after this the slippery slope of Lassode's Curve will become apparent.

For those that think a TO is likely I think it is unlikely until at least after a DFS.

For those that think a production will occur earlier ponder over the reality that the average time for EPA approval of mines is 4 years in Australia, if you doubt this ask REO execs. Nb production is not environmentally friendly and requires considerable energy.

Not advice just my thoughts to ensure holders lock in their profits. And remember the BEOT makes money on a falling SP, unlike retail.

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Sentiment: None Disclosure: Didn't hold long enough. Prognosis: Unfortunate but predictable miscalculation and loss of potential earnings.

WA1 Price at posting: $20.29 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last $14.86		Change -0.200(1.33%)		Mkt cap ! $963.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$15.27	$15.44	$14.80	$5.294M	353.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1857	$14.86

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$14.88	50	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1857	14.860
2	4159	14.850
1	300	14.830
2	620	14.820
5	2656	14.810

Price($)	Vol.	No.
14.880	50	1
14.900	1000	1
14.910	4000	1
15.000	41813	2
15.100	3250	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

WA1 (ASX) Chart

Sentiment: None Disclosure: Didn't hold long enough. Prognosis:...

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