Hi Wurlitch, I think most of your numbers are reasonable as estimates towards the lower bound, although as @Novac pointed out, I'm not sure where you're getting A$25k/t FeNb from? $25k USD/t FeNb may be reasonable. Anyway, just to tally some of the factors by which a reasonable estimate could differ from yours - of course, there are no right answers here, it would be more productive to discuss in terms of confidence intervals rather than point estimates..
1. Final resource size could well be 300Mt @ 1%, yielding ~1.5MT FeNb; a factor of 1.5.
2. Current market price of FeNb is ~A$50k/t (see attached; price is in CNY/t); a factor of 2.
3. Araxa EV/R is ~10%, i.e. they have ~A$400b recoverable value and were priced at ~A$40b by the 2011 JP+SK/CN consortia minority interest acquisitions ($13b USD in 2024 AUD, pro-rated by 4/3 to account for Codemig 25% profit share); Luni could eventually reach that in steady state, in fact possibly a premium in EV/R as much of Araxa's tonnage is discounted far into the future, but let's conservatively discount by 50% for today's value, ie. EV/R ~5%; still a factor of 2.
That's a factor of 5 relative to your estimate of today's fair share price, which would put us at $50 present value per share, not unreasonable.
Similarly, with the PE calculation, my crude Araxa numbers from their sustainability report and the above valuation estimate put them at a PE of 22, rather than 8, which would put your earnings-based valuation at ~$80 per share, again, conservatively discounting to around $40 present value (I think this discount factor is on the harsh side now, given today's metallurgical derisking, but fine for order of magnitude purposes).
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- General discussion
Hi Wurlitch, I think most of your numbers are reasonable as...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 3,167 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add WA1 (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$15.45 |
Change
-0.820(5.04%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.002B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$16.04 | $16.47 | $15.36 | $2.892M | 184.5K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 422 | $15.40 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$15.50 | 190 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 434 | 15.370 |
1 | 195 | 15.350 |
1 | 1000 | 15.250 |
1 | 10 | 15.230 |
1 | 432 | 15.200 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
15.690 | 998 | 3 |
15.850 | 999 | 2 |
15.890 | 77 | 1 |
15.950 | 177 | 1 |
16.100 | 635 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
WA1 (ASX) Chart |