General discussion, page-9236

Hi Wurlitch, I think most of your numbers are reasonable as estimates towards the lower bound, although as @Novac pointed out, I'm not sure where you're getting A$25k/t FeNb from? $25k USD/t FeNb may be reasonable. Anyway, just to tally some of the factors by which a reasonable estimate could differ from yours - of course, there are no right answers here, it would be more productive to discuss in terms of confidence intervals rather than point estimates..

1. Final resource size could well be 300Mt @ 1%, yielding ~1.5MT FeNb; a factor of 1.5.
2. Current market price of FeNb is ~A$50k/t (see attached; price is in CNY/t); a factor of 2.
3. Araxa EV/R is ~10%, i.e. they have ~A$400b recoverable value and were priced at ~A$40b by the 2011 JP+SK/CN consortia minority interest acquisitions ($13b USD in 2024 AUD, pro-rated by 4/3 to account for Codemig 25% profit share); Luni could eventually reach that in steady state, in fact possibly a premium in EV/R as much of Araxa's tonnage is discounted far into the future, but let's conservatively discount by 50% for today's value, ie. EV/R ~5%; still a factor of 2.

That's a factor of 5 relative to your estimate of today's fair share price, which would put us at $50 present value per share, not unreasonable.

Similarly, with the PE calculation, my crude Araxa numbers from their sustainability report and the above valuation estimate put them at a PE of 22, rather than 8, which would put your earnings-based valuation at ~$80 per share, again, conservatively discounting to around $40 present value (I think this discount factor is on the harsh side now, given today's metallurgical derisking, but fine for order of magnitude purposes).