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uranium69

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20/04/24

13:55

Post #: 73437887
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Originally posted by Macklemore: ↑

@CounterVin
@uranium69
@@ozblue

You need to step very carefully in the pursuit of being the second biggest niobium producer in the world

Summary
If Wa1 doubled Arganauts (june23) 15.7 ktonne/pa plant a risk on $24 per share and $43 could be achieved using
Argaunaut debt to equity for the capex. The constraint on WA1 to move from 7.4% worldmarket share to 14.8% market share is a possible price war
retailtion from CBMM from 2031

Details

Arganaut were conservative at $ 10.04 risk on and $ 43 everything works flawlessly to 2031 for current BOD.
issues were they had capital raises of $6 and $7 in 2024 and 2025 which is distortion current thinking i.e 4 M @ $10 2024 and ??
interest rate was unknown but I used 7%.for last years arganuat .. This year thats up to 8%

I modelled as much as I could of Arganaut with 15.7 ktonne and 7.4% world output. we can have recoveries approximately of 30%
if we double the plant to 32 ktonnes output and 15% of worlds output get 20% capex and opex reduction on the bigger plant. recoveries
need to exceed 45% in this scenario.

Because we have modest number of shares on Issue I modelled an equity based scenario and that is a slight improvement from

enclosed is the table generated by getting all the Summar

Assumptions
all Argnauts research with my estimates where Argnaut was silent .
Then increase capex and opex 80% with 100% improvement in namplate
15/04/2024 is an equity based approach with cornerstone investor being obtained 2029

A 15% competitor lobing in 2031 creating a price war is not modelled

Price is decreasing from today at 1% .

All $ are in AUD .

Does anyone have bell Potter's $17.65 research paper released in March 2024 ? I would like to incoporate that into this study.

Expand

look bug......worm...

if Fortescue buy wa1 for $20........

you can take the money and buy Fortescue .....

then you can have both worlds.....

under a massive umbrella..

so... zip your mouth and take $20 takeover

im your friend

WA1 Price at posting: $16.81 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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