Yeah , but history has shown that ' initial ' Discovery type plays behave differently to that of more ' Development ' and growth by acquisition type plays. So when you say the same as SYA , I would ask in what way. If you are referring to dips to ' Pip ' all time lows and languishing before ' Takeoff ' due Industry sentiments more than anything else , I would say not likely to be the same.
In fact , I would argue that the behavior of the SP would follow more along the path of the likes of the early SFR's and DEG's in terms of the potential of this discovery.
I'd even go one step further here and am happy to call it now .....that this is the next significant GOLD mine discovery in Australia.
And who says it can't happen TWICE by the same renowned geologist in Andy Beckwith who has been instrumental in the De Grey Mining HEMI Discovery and in fact won the prestigious 2021 AMEC prospectors award for this discovery.
And for those who may have forgotten how that all played out , it was a time which saw DEG's SP rise from 5 cents to 16.0 cents ( 320% ) in just a month and 1,680% to 84 cents in just 5 months to the end of June in that same year of 2020. And in fact they actually did a $31.2 million dollar raise in April of 2020 at a 9.5% discount at around 28.0 cents or 5 times where the SP was on a couple of months before.
Winding back the clock ,the only one to win that award and do that extraordinary run with its SP was Sandfire Resources when Margaret Hawke , John Evans , and Graeme Hutton won that same award in 2010 for their discovery of the DeGrussa ( Doolgunna) Deposit which saw its SP climb 1,667% in the 3 months from March 2009 to June 2009 , and 3,350% after just another month to the end of July 2009.
With Sandfire , they actually had a swag of 15.0 & 35 cent paid up contributing share as well as in the money directors options which were progressively converted at prices obviously above the similar 5.0 cent SP recorded in March 2009 whereby they converted these for working capital right up until early July 2009 , and then then in almost a blink of an eye , they halt trading around the middle of July for a series of exploration results including a hit of a massive 8 metre zone at 27.5% Copper and 31.5 metres of sulphides. And then next think you know they are raising over $10 million in a $1.20 1 for 10 non-renounceable rights issue on 22nd July 2009 . The rest is just history in reflecting on where it was roughly a month earlier at 80.0 cents on 19th June ......, to where it then went to at the end of July and on the ' Record Date ' of the raise to over $2 dollars per share.
And while there is only ONE Geologist who has won this AMEC award TWICE in the last 20 years ( Mark Bennet for the Nova & Bollinger at Sirius Resources in 2002 , and or his Thunderbox in 2002 ) , the area around Leonora & Leinster north of Kalgoorlie is absolutely littered with successful gold mines , but has only WON the award TWICE in the last 20 years with the discoveries of both the Anglo Ashanti held Sunrise deposit in 1997 as well as the Bennett's Thunderbox discovery in 2002.
So if you just turn your attention's to the maps I provide in my earlier post , you can see why there is so much potential here.
Both from a pure geological point of view of nearology and trends , but also from an obvious high level of Corporate Activity point of view when you look as some of the deals which have transpired just in the 200 kilometre radius shown in the Map.
So you've got the recent tussle between Genesis minerals ( GMD) and SIlver Lake Resources for the circa $700 million plus takeover of St Barbara Mining over its flagship Gwalia gold project. And that's all after you'd had RED5 as well as Regis both talking about merging or taking over SBM as well. So they ALL wanted to posture for a piece of the action around St Barbara's project ....., and which is very nearly ON TOP of ours. So we know that the ' appetite ' is there for this sort of bolt on activity and the quest for high grade tonnages. And that looks like the bargaining chip we actually have in CAV's favor.
You then had Genesis offer DCN over $110 million in its all stock deal and absorption of DCN's previously shuttered Mt Morgan's mine.
You've got Northern Star Resources very active in the area over the years as well by taking over Saracen Mineral Holdings back in 2020 for A$58 billion as well as a few others in the Kalgoorlie area where they paid cica $15 million just for KGM's kalgoorlie tenements package. Then IGO bought SIR for A$1.8 billion back in 2015. You also had Anglo Ashanti being active as well in the area with their 2019 deal to buy ore from Matsa Resources's Red October mine which isn't even shown on the Map for processing at its GIANT Sunrise Dam operations. Ashanti was also involved in the granting of approval for Regis to acquire the 30% stake from IGO for the Tropicanna mine located 200 klm's east of Sunrise Dam , and is also NOT on the included Map.
So you get my point here and where I will have to stop there based purely on available time and length of this post.
But just moving to the smaller end of the market and ignoring the rather hostile company destroying maneuvers gone wrong by MCT's play for NME. That would leave you with the likes of DCN and STN as well as say KIN who all seem to have these MRE's sporting anywhere from 2.7 million ounces for DCN , 1.84 million ounces or thereabouts recently revised by STN , and 1.5 million for KIN who just so happens to be in JV with Genesis just to the north of CAV's Kookynie with its Desdemona South JV.
in fact , DCN just upgraded its MRE to 2.7 million ounces after its Jupiter Pit more than doubled its resource to 830,000 ounces of and STN to 1.8 4million after yet they are absolutely poles apart in their valuations with DCN at 100 plus million in market cap verses STN at only $30 million.
So it would appear that it's all about location , who you know , and who you choose to partner with in this area. And who better to set that all up than the likes of Beckwith and some of the other high profile individuals and mining personalities / geologists collectively representing in CAV's Top 20.
Incidentally , you can add Simon James Buswell-Smith who is the head of exploration at Great Southern Mining and was the registered holder of CAV's Grey Dam permit E28/2857 and who is now 10% free carried. So there' another renowned Kalgoorlie geologist who is indirectly tied into CAV.
So yeah , it would seem it's about to all happen for the likes of CAV. And I guess it shouldn't be as though we haven't seen all this before. Even with REZ's 20221 rise in its SP from sub 2 cents to over 10 cents on its possible NEW discovery holes . You also had TEM with its potential in 2022 as well as CNB's with its staying power in its discovery of its Mt Hope and Lady Fanny deposits which had seen its SP rise from 25 cents to over $2 dollars in the span of just 4 months. And I think they have now raised in excess of $40 million for their projects now.
So my point here is we know it can happen , and it usually has these BIG gains near the beginning of the journey. Especially if they are genuine.
Let's hope this will be the case with CAV.....
(20min delay)