The below article discusses the problems with the FEOC rules I was projecting when it was first announced. I didn't consider the US scrapping the FEOC rules entirely for graphite however. I should have. The only anode producer in the US when the FEOC rules start in 2025 will be SYR and they'll only be producing a lousy10ktpa (run rate) by then. NVX makes the map in the article
A couple of snippets
Why underinvestment in ex-China anode supply chains could make graphite exception to new FEOC rules
Insufficient investment in anode supply chains in the West has become one of the key challenges to the implementation of US localization policies for electric vehicle (EV) and battery ecosystems
If the proposed FEOC rules are applied, almost no batteries produced in the US will qualify for the 30D tax credit in 2025. Given the extended qualification periods for anode suppliers, typically three to five years, it would be a challenge to replace current anode suppliers before 2027. Furthermore, it appears to be extremely challenging for battery producers to find reliable suppliers of qualifiable anode material at a commercial scale.
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