SYR syrah resources limited

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28.0¢

Again you’re catastrophising and relying on unknowns to produce...

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JRSelvedge

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17/12/24

17:34

Post #: 77091364
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Originally posted by jjsbuy: ↑

In order to answer your question JRS there are a few facts or firm assumptions:

1. Fremilo has not been in power since 1975 because it is a Democratic Party that has been really good at governance and raising the nation out of poverty. It is an autocracy in all but name.
2. Autocracies do not tend to give up power peacefully but are forced to through overwhelming violence or mass power of the people. There are a few exceptions like the KMT in Taiwan or the Nationalist government in Spain but these was also influenced by international pressure.
3. The legal case brought by the opposition is being heard by courts that are controlled by FREMILO.
4. Both FREMILO and opposition recognise the need for mining companies to operate in Mozambique. I believe in previous article something like 30% plus of GDP comes from mining.

On or around 23 Dec I expect that the courts will not/not rule in favour of the opposition (90% likely). Even if it does Fremilo are not about to give up power after nearly 49 years (90% likely). So what? At that point the opposition leader has made it pretty clear what will happen. Anarchy (100% likely):

"If we get the electoral truth, we will go towards peace. If it is an electoral lie, we will bring the country down to a precipice, chaos and disorder," Mondlane warned in a live online broadcast. He urged his supporters to "paralyse" the southern African country starting on Monday next week, the deadline for validating the results.

How will this be resolved? There really are only two ways. The government collapses. 50/50. or the government clamps down with more extreme violence and restores order through the power of the gun 50/50. Either options means anarchy and instability for probably months!!!!! (The most likely outcome)

After that unknown period of violence both potential governments will be keen to get mining going again. However in the case of Balama the demonstrators are not there as part of the demonstration against the election. They are trying to extort more cash out of SYR. The only way to counter that after months of unsuccessful dialogue may be the need to send in the police to crack a few sculls or maybe bring in some Russian mercenaries to "restore access" (not a preferred option).

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Again you’re catastrophising and relying on unknowns to produce an unknowable outcome whilst also being an expert on international diplomacy, economics and the legal system on the African subcontinent.

Cheers

DYOR IMO

SYR Price at posting: 18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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