ok thanks for the clarification regarding the quote,believe me I...

ok thanks for the clarification regarding the quote,

believe me I can understand the frustration. I didn't anticipate the prices falling as low as they are right now. I simply didn't have a good source on inventory levels in China like the chart from fastmarkets that was shared on X a few months ago. (I don't know if fastmarkets continually updates it as a paid serivce, I haven't seen a newer version of the chart since then. But inventory levels are highly likely lower now then they were back then from what I have read from various other sources.).
Then there are Chinese lepidolite production and African direct shipment ore (DSO) that many analysts did not predict correctly to its full extent that we saw unfold. To a certain extent it was simply not predictable, because how is anyone supposed to predict companies producting at zero margins or even at loss and not considering the disposable costs for the slag that they leave behind. There was no past cycle comparable to what happened over the last 1 .2 years. uncharted territory

In hindsight it makes sense that the super high prices of over 80K USD per ton in the Chinese spot market where only possible with strong EV sales growth and inventory build on top of that. Looking forward I tend to follow the view of numerous independent analysts / research firms that predict an average of 25K USD per ton over the next years with some level of price fluctuations. However, I don't know if this forecast makes sense towards the end of the decade when also many forecast a growing structural supply deficit even if they include "likely and possible" greenfield and brownfield expansions. I think many here have the seen the charts that show the fast falling demand / supply balance charts towards the end of the decade. The cost curve also becomes higher at the right end due to years of inflation and lower quality resources needing to enter the cost curve.

All in all if we can get two 25K USD per ton of LCE within this year and hover around this level then Arcadium stock is still an incredible value pick all things considered including the production capacity expansion from the numerous growth projects.