LTM 1.95% $7.03 arcadium lithium plc

This is some weird crap going on. I have to go back and reread...

  1. 957 Posts.
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    This is some weird crap going on. I have to go back and reread some of my old posts from early 2020 to remind myself of some of the similarities.

    The interesting thing is that at current prices, thanks to our large brine portfolio, we are one of the most profitable lithium players out there. We will be able to outlast many players if things were to get worse, but most importantly, we have so much cash on hand.

    We are seeing the signs of a bottom put in place, yet the SP has been tanking. Auction pricing from PLS and ALB is reasonable and show stability, not end of the world results.

    Comparing back to 2020, my observation is that this is probably the final capitulation stage by the retail holders. The 'I have had enough of this crap stage' looking for the exit. As they run for the exit the big funds can make their major moves.

    Until those without the conviction finish up selling, we are probably in for a bit of a mixed bag. Hold on tight.

    For now, we are waiting for EV sales numbers and hope they reach that 19 million target this year. For me, nothing is more important than that. If they disappoint, we are in for a longer hard time. If they meet expectations, then the turnaround is in sight. Let's just see. For me, I think the key catalyst is Tesla and Juniper (I think sales of MY will not grow strongly until it is released), and Model 2 will be the demand changer. Interest rates going down in the USA, will be a big first step to a change in sentiment.

    At these prices, one would expect accumulation to be rather favourable for anyone with a long-term view.
 
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