General Discussion, page-1765

Market is forward looking, it is forecasting a slow period of price growth and expansions, a much more tempered view vs some on here but in essence in the current subdued lithium price environment one would expect JB, Nemaska to be loss making, at the very least for 1-2 years during rampup. North America isn't exactly the cheapest jurisdiction to operate in despite the unjustified claims of many newcomers.

The 3x expansion plan is a pipedream in this current pricing environment. The capex and working capital (rampup funding for operations which are inherently difficult to ramp up) far exceeds free cash flow generation of existing ops. You can't simply take the aisc from a feasibility study and say great they will be making strong margins. The path to those strong margins is long and very expensive unfortunately.
Debt funding in the current environment isn't exactly a silver bullet.

Have a look at livent and allkem individual expansion plans, ramp up profiles and delivery track record to date to get a clearer picture. Not sure why people expect a combination of two producers who individually failed to deliver on budget (cost and timing) to do any better as a combined entity in a very difficult environment.

If they achieve 100% growth by 2026 that will be a great outcome. Temper your expectations and you won't be disappointed.
3x growth by 2030, subject to prices recovering is probably a more realistic scenario.

Expect further delays to come through in the coming quarterlies, that is what the market is expecting and is completely sensible imo.

Aimo