If this is true, whilst Arcadium is a lot smaller than Anglo American and they’re not into lithium, I think RIO will take note of the failed bid for Anglo, and make an initial offer thats probably higher than they would normally. It will also keep BHP away who are an unlikely but possible wildcard in a low lithium pricing environment.
So just pure speculation from me, but I think a first offer would be around a 40-50% premium. So I’ll guess ~45% premium and landing between AUD $7.51-7.60.
Paul Graves will roll out the usual “This offer materially undervalues the low-cost lon—life assets and chemical conversion capacity of the company”
And the final offer would be in the AUD $8.5-9.0 range. That would be accepted imo.
If this is true, whilst Arcadium is a lot smaller than Anglo...
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