LTM 3.82% $4.08 arcadium lithium plc

Profit margin tends to move up and down the supply chain...

  1. 801 Posts.
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    Profit margin tends to move up and down the supply chain depending on where you are in the cycle. Prior to the previous boom in prices the lions share of the margin was with the converters, that changed quickly when prices sky-rocketed, favouring those upstream. Lithium isn't unique in this respect, Copper treatment and refining charges were at all time lows recently as a result of limited copper concentrate feedstock. Converters essentially willing to operate at break even or a loss to stay in business.

    Re PLS, without digressing too far from ltm discussions. Sigma came online on time and budget, it is the cheapeat and quickest ramp up I have seen in the sector full stop. On an all in cost basis for hard rock they are second to Greenbushes. Suspect PLS expects similar significant benefits from LRS, supportive and well established mining jurisdiction, low labour and material cost, ease of permitting etc etc.

    As far as upstream vs downstream approach goes, PLS has clearly adopted the former, they compensate for lower margins by much larger volume while dipping their toes in strategically via downstream JVs, posco and ganfeng. This has obviously worked out well, their balance sheet strength is second to none and can now afford to be opportunistic with acquisitions while others batten down the hatches. I have been a strong supporter of pls and their approach for many years, they leapfrogged ltm a long time ago and will only widen the gap from here. A different approach and one that has worked out really well for them.

    At the end of the day cash is king, it is all well and good to have implied value in the ground but if you never realise that value what is it really worth.

    The silver lining for ltm is the optionality to use dle, that is the real risk for hard rock imo. It has the potential to move all hard rock up the cost curve and that is a scary proposition.
    I don't think brine is something PLS would be interested in, they have seen how complex and slow it is, it just doesn't suit their growth objectives.

    As far at ltm goes, I really hope that the latest set of delays is the last but something tells me there is more to come. The remaining capex ticket is still a stretch beyond their cash generation and existing funding capacity. I would really like to see them enter a JV with someone who can cornerstone the funding.

    Aimo
 
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