1. It's opaque. For Zimbabwe, I believe that there are no available production numbers that anyone has found yet. Production is estimated from reported plant capacity or China import data. Concentrate grade is also another question, an estimate is 3.9% (see below reference). The three main Zimbabwe ones are clearly not artisanal mines, but proper Chinese-led industrial mining operations of scale.
The available news articles suggest a lot of Zimbabweans are not happy with the mines, and concentrate transport is an issue. However, I doubt that these would be enough to stop/curtail production, and I think it's reasonable to assume that they will continue producing and expanding production over the next several years.
2. Nigeria is another question entirely. It popped up in the China import data, and I've not found anything on it all.
3. A report I was reading but cannot post here also suggested that China is another wild card. They apparently have potential for lepidolite production to expand (approximately double in a couple of years), but ESG concerns are predicted to curtail these expansions.
4. Another big question is Western production. There're a lot of recent mines like Mt Holland and Kathleen Valley, and Groto do Cirilo, and brine projects, that are now online or in ramp up.
5. I've not seen a reconcilement between realistic expected production and expected demand, so make can't comment on when deficit may occur again. We do know it's likely to occur again. I'm prepared for three or four years of low prices, which is why I favour Arcadium over all of the others. I have no basis to predict when prices will get better other than the suggestions by analysts in the media predicting approximately USD$10,000-$14,000 LCE (mostly converted from spodumene concentrate price to LCE by myself) price until ~2027.
LTM Price at posting:
$3.57 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)