Over the past year, lithium prices have fallen to $10,000/t, close to a 10-year low. This is a sharp decline from $80,000/t just two years ago. The average 5-year price is around $20,000/t. #LithiumPrice
Recently, we’ve seen key industry moves: - Ganfeng Lithium has delayed several projects. - General Motors deferred a US$330M investment in Lithium Americas $LAC. - CATL, a Chinese battery giant, scaled back its lithium production—potentially reducing global supply by 5%.
Here’s the key: At current price levels (~$10,000/t), most projects aren’t economically feasible. Cash costs for most projects sit around $6,000-$8,000 per tonne, with capex in the billions. Prices need to be at least $15,000/t to make new projects attractive. #LithiumCosts
Even when prices were at $20,000/t, long-term supply was unlikely to meet growing demand from the EV and clean energy sectors. At $10,000/t, we believe there’s no way the sector can sustain itself without major price adjustments.
In conclusion, while we don’t know exactly when prices will turn, the fundamentals suggest that the lithium sector must rebound. Now might be the time to start looking at key opportunities in the space.
DYOR ........TICK TOCK....PTW
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