General Discussion, page-744

FWIW here is a slide that was apparently from an event in Melb last week, posted over the road by mozzaa.





What is shows, afaik, are supply and demand estimates, where the "supply" columns in the chart on the RIGHT include new projects, and the chart on the LEFT does not include new projects - just current operations and brownfield expansions.
The 2 lines are "Base" and "High-case" demand estimates.

I think the point they are making, is that significant volume from new projects is absolutely and urgently needed, and that if the demand grows at anywhere near the "high-case" estimate, even including the "possible" new projects alongside the "probable" and "highly probable" new projects in the supply side, will not have a chance of providing a so-called extended "oversupply" as some commentators are "forecasting".
The devil is always in the detail.
In this case, the supply/demand "balance" is massively dependent on the unfolding demand curve. Massively.... and the "oversupply" call only applies if the "base-case" demand unfolds, and even then, only just.
...and what happens when the "possible" new projects are reduced or delayed due to challenges with financing/profitability/permitting/construction/etc..?

I'm not saying that BMI's forecasts are "correct", but it is indeed interesting that the points/issues that are raised by such analysis are rarely discussed, afaict! IMO it looks like the basis of those demand cases requires extra attention and analysis!

It seems far easier to simply write headlines and articles about the "lithium bust" and other click-baity "demand dropping" garbage.

Interesting!!

IMO
DYOR