General Discussion, page-532

An article back from 23 July 2024, can only be good news going forward:

China's shift towards overland metallurgical coal imports to dampen shipping demand-23 Jul 2024:

Print Drewry has analysed the potential implications of China’s strategy to diversify its coking coal import partners, which will have multiple implications on shipping.

The burgeoning trade with Mongolia will curtail seaborne trade, while higher imports from Russia over Australia will dampen the tonne-mile demand.

Massive potential trade growth is expected between Mongolia and China due to the commencement of the railway network between the two countries in 2023 and the construction of two additional rail networks underway.

Emerging trends:

While the demand for coking coal looks promising, the declining share of seaborne trade and the shift in trade patterns in the short term have critical implications for the global shipping demand.

The expansion in overland trade from Mongolia and the tepid growth in imports from Australia will dampen shipping demand.

China’s coking coal imports from Mongolia have been skyrocketing, the latter’s domestic production has been burgeoning, with production reaching 82 million tonnes in 2023, more than doubling from 39 million tonnes in 2022.

More than 90% of the landlocked Mongolia’s production is transported to China, with the newly developed railway network easing trade.

The commencement of the railway network between Tavan Tolgoi in North Mongolia and the Chinese border was the game-changer in 2023, meanwhile, construction of two additional rail networks began in 2023, signalling massive potential growth in trade between the two countries in future.

Conclusion:
China's strategic shift towards rail-based coal imports from Mongolia and increased reliance on Russian coal marks a transformative moment for the global shipping industry. The new rail networks and China's heavy investments in Mongolia signal a decisive move away from seaborne trade, drastically reducing the demand for long-haul shipping. As Chinese steel mills face tight margins and weak domestic demand, the preference for closer, cost-effective sources will continue to reshape trade dynamics.