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The department does think that “a projected 70% increase in Australian lithium production over the period should partially offset the impact of lower prices”, and that a “modest recovery in the lithium prices over 2024 and 2025” is also likely.

Also, the Aussie government thinks the lithium spodumene price should rise to about US$1,360 a tonne by 2026.

Look, it ain’t much, but we’ll take it.

It, however, predicts a fall to about US$1,090 a tonne by 2029. Because: “from 2026, alternate battery chemistries could place some price pressure on lithium-ion EV batteries.”