Let's be clear why such characters are here. No beating around the bush this time... The US and EU want China and Russia out of energy and critical minerals market - lithium and rare earth are at the heart of it. Tolerance is on a fine thread.
Guess what is happening this year - elections. Make no mistake about it, there is a balancing act going on and lithium is very much a critical geopolitical chess piece.
Whether Russia/China acts or U.S./EU it doesn't matter how and when, call it de-risking for all intents and purposes but something has to give... and one small move from anyone will result in lithium mines outside the influence of Russia/China becoming important. A crucial commodity.
EUR/CRML is very much in the U.S./EU side. As such attracts enemies/competition - there is every bit an interest to prevent or at the very least delay for US/EU to be self-serving in such things as lithium for such things as the EV market.
No one wants to make any waves, really, not even non-aligned business interests, not even small wave because it is ultimately costly for everyone involved. For the mines however means no matter the economics, becomes a worthwhile venture - this was made obvious for the world to see with lithium reaching what was once thought of unimaginable heights worth $80k a tonne from a humble ~$8k prior to Covid.
Guess what happens to lithium prices for Western consumption if China suddenly decides to cut off all lithium refining end products that would be in batteries for the EU/US consumers? Better yet, imagine a world where US decides to place tariffs on Chinese EVs as high as Chinese tariffs on Aussie wine under Biden. Now imagine if Trump gets elected back in office.
I muse but these are all worth considering.
Understanding why lithium, mines and hydroxide plant separated from Russian influence or Chinese dominated refining, despite already limited in numbers that the likes of Canada would mandate Chinese disinvestment, are worth the investment today.. an appreciation of the forces that are forcing such companies to get to production as soon as humanly possible but supported in a way to least disruption to the market forces of free enterprise (which is ultimately used by democracies as tools for efficiency and innovation).
Question, do we really think Wolfsberg project would be allowed to rot away or is there more credence for the mine, neither big enough to be considered tier 1 nor small to be uneconomical especially with zone 2, to reach production asap? Would the EU allow in their limited local supply for Wolfsberg not to produce lithium due to economic reasons if the choice is existential to their automotive industries?
My investment on EUR doesn't stop with Wolfsberg/CRML but goes deeper - Ukraine, and now hydroxide plant in KSA.
My money here goes far beyond making a quick buck. My money's on the Europeans and Americans in this competition for future industries, of which supply/value chain starts with mining. This is part of why I do my best to counter misinformation.
It is not in EU/US geopolitical interest or business interests (such as manufacturing jobs) for CRML/EUR to go bankrupt, in fact the contrary.. but it is for Russian/Chinese interests for EUR to fail and they don't even hide (there's no need) that they would do everything including as mundane as hiring mercenaries and private companies to do even what may appear inconsequential such as posts on such places as blogs and comment sections to prevent or at least delay any kind of support or progress that goes against their own interests.
Whether the re-rate for EUR happens or not, no one really knows. But personally, I'd rather be in than out. As they say, you got to be in it to win it.
What CRML/EUR promises to deliver are not impossible tasks. In fact, there are laws now that support such business cases and vision. Investing in that business case and vision therefore is not at all difficult to answer the "why".
Happy Easter.
Here's to an Easter surprise comes Tuesday.
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