A reminder, the BMW offtake will be based using Fastmarket spot with a discount, per binding agreement. Europe will have its own spot market prices, separate from the current world spot price based only on Chinese prices. North America will also have its own, so there will be 3x markets/spot prices... soon.
Bonus macro info: Tesla is gearing up to build factory in India. This is all the more made certain due to India's relaxation of tariffs just today. This is significant because Tesla leads, everyone follows... the supply chain with it. It is relevant to EUR due to CRML hydroxide plant in Saudi. Maldives post recent election has decisively moved away from India and closer to China. Saudi-India has since made a pack, joint military exercises to keep Red Sea and Indian Ocean secure from trade, with it comes closer economic relations.These events don't have obvious impact, usually felt 2yrs or more from inception (so 2026).
Wolfsberg project WILL enter production no later than, and really the latest possible date, July 2026.. based on CRMA mandate that trumps all EU jurisdictions (Mr mayor's opinion means fudge all) to permit mining no later than 2yrs 3months from application. Wolfsberg project zone 1, by law, has all the permit it needs and does not need EIA prior to construction with funding the only missing piece (hence Nasdaq). The decision to progress with EIA is solely the company's decision with a long-term view of expanding with zone 2.
How does this affect share price? I am as anxious and excited as anyone else, without a crystal ball. What I can say is this, can the market afford to ignore CRMA that basically green light European mining projects eliminating the consistent delays caused by the Greens and NIMBY? What value will the market give the Obeikan JVCo once fully confirmed and expected $400M credit line secured with equity total value (as is 50:50) as $US800M by itself alone?
My opinion: CRML to hold $15-$20 per share if to secure confidence. To attain this need secured capital funds, ensuring nothing else is stopping progress and its full steam ahead.
At the very least, here's hoping EUR which is currently heavily oversold (stock) starts trading back again at least 10c.
Patience is always key to mining as environment and stakeholders are considered (including locals who deserve share in the success). Aussies are experts in mining. I may be biased in my opinion but I'm off the view that Aussie + patience = profitable & responsible mining. It's either us or the Canadians.
Each to their risk/reward analysis. Cheers![]()
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